As far as Big 12 championship game appearances go, No. 9 Baylor is the veteran when it comes to Saturday’s matchup at AT&T Stadium. No. 5 Oklahoma State is the rookie.
For the second time in three seasons, the Bears are in the Big 12 championship game with hopes of winning their third conference championship in school history. They would join the 2013 and 2014 teams.
Oklahoma State is looking for it second. The Cowboys won it in 2011.
Of course, there are playoff and New Year’s 6 games that are in play. While Baylor’s playoff chances are pretty remote, Oklahoma State’s are not. A Cowboys win a long with some other help could get them into the playoffs. If that happens, Baylor would go to the Sugar Bowl for the second time in three years.
A Baylor win would spoil those chances but would clinch a spot in the Sugar Bowl. If Oklahoma State wins but is left out of the playoffs, there is still a really good chance for the Bears to play in NY6 game.
The following is breakdown of this matchup.
No. 9 Baylor (10-2) vs. No. 5 Oklahoma State (11-1)
Time/Site: 11:00 a.m. Saturday, AT&T Stadium, Arlington
TV/Radio: ABC/ESPN Central Texas
Series: Oklahoma leads, 22-18
Betting Line: Oklahoma State -5½
Last meeting: Oklahoma State 24, Baylor 14, Oct. 2, Stillwater, OK
Tale of the Tape
Scoring offense: Baylor (33.4, 3rd); Oklahoma State (31.8, 5th)
Total offense: Baylor (446.4, 1st); Oklahoma State (408.8, 6th)
Passing offense: Baylor (219.0, 7th); Oklahoma State (217.7, 8th)
Rushing offense: Baylor (227.4, 1st); Oklahoma State (191.1, 4th)
Scoring defense: Baylor (19.4 2nd); Oklahoma State (16.4,1st)
Total defense: Baylor (349, 4th); Oklahoma State (281.4, 1st)
Passing defense: Baylor (228.2, 6th); Oklahoma State (187.8, 1st)
Rushing defense: Baylor (120.8, 2nd); Oklahoma State (93.6, 1st)
Sacks by: Baylor (32, T2nd); Oklahoma State (49, 1st)
Sacks allowed: Baylor (12, 1st); Oklahoma State (13 2nd)
3rd Down offense: Baylor (41.6, 7th); Oklahoma State (42.7, 3rd)
3rd Down defense: Baylor (32.1, 2nd); Oklahoma State (24.7, 1st)
4th down offense: Baylor (68.8 3rd); Oklahoma State (54.6 6th)
4th down defense: Baylor (60.0 7th); Oklahoma State (32.0 1st)
Red Zone offense: Baylor (88.7, 7th); Oklahoma State (88.9, 6th)
Turnover Ratio: Baylor (+7, 2nd); Oklahoma State (-1, 6th)
Note: Rankings are Big 12
When Oklahoma State has the ball
Cowboys quarterback Spencer Sanders (2,211 yards, 60.5%, 16 TD, 8 INT) isn’t the prettiest of passers. In fact, there are times when he will make some plays that are downright frustrating for head coach Mike Gundy.
He missed the season opener against Missouri State with an injury. Overall, he’s been pretty solid. Sanders just has to make enough plays to ensure that the offense is moving the ball consistently. He’s also a pretty solid rusher as he is second on the team with 511 yards and six scores.
Oklahoma State was really struggling to find a running game to start the season. It was trying several backs before it settled with Jaylen Warren (1,134, 4.8 ypc 11TD). And while he is a 1,000-yard rusher, he hasn’t really looked the part lately with one 100-yard game in the last six. He didn’t average four yards per carry against Texas Tech and Oklahoma.
A transfer from Washington State, Tay Martin emerged this year as the go-to receiving target with 61 grabs for 854 yards and seven touchdowns. He’s complimented by Brennan Presley (38-462 12.2 5TD) who is starting to come into his own. Blaine Green (18-297 16.5 1TD) is used an H back in certain formations.
The Cowboys are pretty balanced with 2,612 yards passing and 2,293 yards rushing.
What Baylor must do
Baylor really doesn’t have to do anything too too fancy. There are likely going to be some looks that the Cowboys will not have seen, and that’s usually part of the territory in a second meeting.
The Bears are going to stay in their trademark 3-4 look. Depending on if they get Christian Morgan (arm) and Kalon Barnes (concussion) back in the secondary, they likely will play a lot of man coverage.
They will try their share of blitzes between All-Big 12 first team linebacker Terrel Bernard and Jalen Pitre off the edge. But the Bears can just somewhat pin their ears back and play this straight up. They probably can because their pass rush improved steadily over the last month.
Remember, they intercepted Sanders three times in the first meeting including two inside the OSU 40-yard line. The only issue was that they could do nothing with those opportunities.
This is going to be about getting pressure on Sanders and inducing him into making a mistake. The Bears will rotate their corners so it could be a mix between Barnes (if healthy), Raleigh Texada and Al Walcott (can play the whole game because he was ejected in the first half against Texas Tech) and they will feel pretty comfortable between Martin and Presley.
Of course, forcing a turnover or two has to be part of the recipe. Baylor is on a streak of forcing one in 20 consecutive games.
When Baylor has the ball
Obviously, the issue for the Bears is quarterback. Everything points to Blake Shapen (416 yards, 67% 2TD) remaining the starter. Gerry Bohanon (2,160, 64% 17TD 6 INT) is two weeks removed from a hamstring injury. He’s gone through some light workouts during the week. But it’s unclear to what extent he could provide if he plays or starts.
Shapen made some really good throws against Texas Tech and got away with a couple including one that was nearly a Pick6. Tyquan Thornton (55-875 15.9 8TD – all career highs) bounced back from a dismal 2020 and re-emerged as the alpha receiver of this group. That was important because as he surged R.J. Sneed (43-559 12.9 2TD) really slowed down toward the end. Sneed had just 10 receptions in the last four games.
A third option really is a constant. That’s tight end Ben Sims (27-327 12.1 5TD). Offensive Coordinator Jeff Grimes loved to use him on seam routes.
Of course, this offense’s calling card is the running game led by Doak Walker Award semifinalist Abram Smith (215-1,366 6.4 12TD). The switch back to running back from linebacker in the spring may be the biggest offseason move head coach Dave Aranda made because Smith personified what the RVO offense was all about. His north-south style played to that. He was also strong in the fourth quarter. Trestan Ebner (Rush: 137-746 5.4 2TD Rec: 25-257 10.3 2TD) had 1,000 combined yards rushing and receiving. He was also a more physical rusher this fall.
Baylor knows it has a tough assignment on the ground but it must show the Cowboys that it will be committed to running the football.
What Oklahoma State Must Do
There’s two ways Oklahoma State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles can look at this. Should the Cowboys see Shapen, Knowles can try to bring a lot of heat on the youngster and make him beat the Cowboys with his arm.
Knowles can afford to do that because of the pressure his defense can apply. The Cowboys’ 49 sacks lead all of college football. All-Big 12 linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez is coming off a 2 sack performance last week against Oklahoma. Bookend defensive ends Collin Oliver and Tyler Lacy combined for 12 sacks with Oliver owning 8.5 of those.
The hyphen brothers – defensive back Jarrick Bernard-Converse and safety Kolby Harvell-Peel – earned All-Big 12 honors because they were good at man coverage and help over the top. Consider that Harvell-Peel has two interceptions and Bernard-Converse nine PBUs. He will likely get matched up against Thornton.
Kansas State may have presented something two weeks ago where it sold out to stop Smith. It worked. He had his worst game of the year at 46 yards. Oklahoma State is better than Kansas State. And really, Smith struggled in the first half against Texas Tech before getting it going in the second half.
Should the Cowboys decide to attempt to take the running game away from the Bears, then Shapen – or Bohanon as limited as he may be – is going to have to win this with him arm.
It always comes back to the kicking game
Baylor has a nice find at place-kicker in left-footed Isaiah Hankins. He’s made all 51 PATs and is 14-18 on field goals. He’s 11-11 from inside 40 yards but just 3-7 from 40 and beyond. Still, there’s been a measure of consistency in his game.
Punter Issac Power was solid again for the Bears averaging 45.4 yards per effort. The Bears had one kickoff return for a touchdown. That was Ebner going 98 against Iowa State.
Oklahoma State has used two place kickers between Tanner Brown and Alex Hale. Brown is used more as he has the bigger leg. Brown is 11-14 on field goals, 3-4 between 30-39 and 1-2 40-49. Hale is 0-3 from 40-49.
Punter Tom Hutton is averaging 42.2 yards per effort. Presley had a kickoff return for a touchdown against Oklahoma last week. LD Brown has the other KOR TD.
Intangibles
>Turnovers: Baylor’s penchant for forcing these has been a key to its success. The Bears have forced 19 turnovers and are +7 for 2021. Pitre has created five of them between three fumble recoveries and two interceptions. Given that Oklahoma State is -1 in the turnover ratio that could loom large.
>4th down: Field position doesn’t matter for the Bears to some degree. Aranda has said they rely on analytics to make those decisions. They have the most 4th down attempts of anyone in the Big 12 with 32. They have converted 22 times for 69 percent. That’s very impressive. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State has the fewest attempts with 11. Mike Gundy won’t go for it unless he has to go for it.
>Four fingers: The highest scoring quarter for Baylor? That’s the 4th quarter where the Bears have scored 107 points and allowed 78, some of that in garbage time when games had been decided. Oklahoma State has also had the killer instinct in the final 15 minutes outscoring its opponents 115-44. In four of the Cowboys last five games, opponents were held scoreless in the fourth.
>No offense: Both of these teams know how to score without the offense. Baylor has three touchdowns between the defense and special teams. Oklahoma State has four. Each team has a fumble return and interception return for a touchdown. Baylor has one kickoff return for a score. The Cowboys have two.
The Two Factors
>We touched on Aranda going for it on fourth down regardless of the field position because analytics have been his guide. But this game is a little different. Well, it’s a lot different. There’s a conference championship on the line.
If Aranda is looking at a fourth and three at his 34 in the first quarter, would he risk going for it or would he send the punt team out there to flip the field, play defense and get the ball back for the offense so it will have a chance to get the ball back with better field position?
That’s called managing the game differently.
>Baylor trickeration is a thing. We’ve seen Thornton throw a touchdown pass. We’ve seen linebacker Dillon Doyle rush for a score and catch a touchdown. Ben Sims has also rushed for a touchdown. We haven’t seen any of that over the last two weeks against Kansas State and Texas Tech. In fact, Baylor has played it close to the vest.
But in a game like this when there is the opportunity to use something different to catch the Cowboys by surprise that could be something to look for. Obviously, the Bears have used a lot of those plays near the goal line. We’ll see if Grimes has something planned for somewhere else on the field.
Baylor’s one player
Jalen Pitre, Sr. Star – The Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year burst on to the scene in 2020 with consecutive Pick6s at Iowa State and at Texas Tech and became one of the focal points of the defense.
He just has a keen awareness of where to be on the field and his instincts usually serve him well. If Baylor’s offense is having some issues moving the ball, there could be a moment maybe two where it needs a short field.
As mentioned above, he leads all Baylor defenders with five created turnovers. Pitre’s ability to get to the line for TFLs are great and will be needed. However, Pitre just has this knack for changing the momentum in a game. He could do that with a pick or fumble recovery.
Prediction
While it’s great to look back at the Oct. 2 game in Stillwater, it really doesn’t matter because that was two months ago and both teams have come a long way since then. Besides, very few thought these two would be in this game on Saturday.
This is such an even matchup. These teams somewhat mirror each other. Baylor has the better offense because of its running game. Oklahoma State has the better defense – not by much – because of its ability to stop the run.
Even if the rushing yards are two or three per click, the Bears have to show the Cowboys they are committed to doing it. On the flipside, Warren is in a bit of funk himself and Baylor would like to keep it that way.
For me, this game comes down to the quarterback play. I still believe Shapen is your starter and Aranda and Grimes are going to have to devise a game plan where the risk factor is low. This is a taller order than what it was last week against Texas Tech.
That doesn’t mean Shapen can’t take his vertical shots. Now, if Bohanon somehow gets on the field that’s going to be a wild card factor. You’re not going to really know what he can do until you see it.
Then we look at Sanders. A really talented player but can make some really poor decisions. Five of his eight interceptions were thrown between the Baylor game (3) and Oklahoma (2) game. He is more susceptible to making the really bad play.
That’s why I think Baylor wins this. Sanders is just going to do something that puts the Cowboys in a bad spot that turns the game.
Baylor 23, Oklahoma State 20
