NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP MATCHUP: Baylor vs. Gonzaga
2020-21 NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
No. 1 Baylor (27-2) vs. No. 1 Gonzaga (31-0)
Day/Time: Monday/8:20 pm CDT
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
TV/Radio: CBS/ESPN Central Texas
Series: Gonzaga leads, 5-0; defeated Baylor in second round of 2019 NCAA tournament, 83-71
A win would…: Give either the Bears or Zags their first national championship in program history
National Championship Game Path
Baylor (South Region Champions): d. No. 16 Hartford, 79-55 (first round); d. No. 9 Wisconsin, 76-63 (second round), d. No. 5 Villanova, 62-51 (Sweet 16); d. No. 3 Arkansas, 81-72 (Elite 8); d. Houston, 78-59 (Final Four)
Gonzaga (West Region Champions): d. No. 16 Norfolk State, 98-55 (first round); d. No. 8 Oklahoma, 87-71 (second round), d. No. 5 Creighton, 83-65 (Sweet 16); d. No. 6 USC, 85-66 (Elite 8); d. UCLA, 93-30 OT (Final Four)
Anticipated Starting Lineups
Baylor
G - Jared Butler, 6-3, Jr. (16.5 ppg, 40.4% 3-point)
G - MaCio Teague, 6-4, Sr. (15.9 ppg, 47.7%)
G - Davion Mitchell, 6-2, Jr. (14.0 ppg, 45.0% 3-point)
G/F - Mark Vital, 6-5, Sr. (5.6 ppg, 6.5 rpg)
C - Flo Thamba, 6-10, Jr. (3.7 ppg, 3.9)
Gonzaga
G - Jalen Suggs, 6-3, Fr. (14.1 ppg, 4.3 apg)
G - Andrew Nembhard, 6-5, Jr. (9.2 ppg, 4.3 apg)
G - Joel Ayayi, 6-5, Jr. (12.2 ppg, 7.0 rpg)
F - Corey Kispert, 6-5, Sr. (18.8 ppg. 44.5% 3-point)
F - Drew Timme, 6-10, So. (19.2 ppg, 7.1 rpg)
Rankings
Baylor: No. 3 AP & Coaches
Gonzaga: No. 1 AP & Coaches
Coaches
Baylor: Scott Drew (389-226 19 seasons; 369-215 18 seasons at Baylor)
Gonzaga: Mark Few (628-124 22 seasons overall and at Gonzaga)
Notable
Baylor: Playing in its second national championship game, lost to Kentucky in 1948, 58-42
Gonzaga: Playing in its second national championship game, lost to North Carolina in 2017, 71-65
Story Lines
*Gonzaga is looking to become the first undefeated national champion since Bob Knight’s 1975-76 Indiana Hoosiers (32-0).
*Baylor is attempting to become the second Texas team to win a national title. Texas Western (UTEP) has the only in 1966.
*Baylor is looking for its first win against a No. 1 ranked team (0-8) and No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament (0-3)
Championships
Baylor: Big 12 regular season champions
Gonzaga: West Coast Conference regular season and tournament champions
About Baylor: The Bears met the season pre-season expectations as they began 17-0 before the three COVID-19 week pause (18-0 to start a season). With one of the nation’s best back courts between Butler, Teague and Butler, they rarely trailed except for a little here and there. There was a bench infusion between Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua, Matthew Mayer and Adam Flagler. Fusing that with veteran Mark Vital, the Bears put together a solid rotation of eight. They ran away from the rest of the Big 12 and eventually coasted to their first conference championship in 71 years. What set them back was the pause that pretty much wiped out all of February. They were rusty getting back, especially on the defensive end that included losses at Kansas and to Oklahoma State in the Big 12 tournament. They went 5-2 before the NCAA tournament. However, a week off seemed to be the right medicine. The Bears were active on the defensive end again forcing live ball turnovers and using that for their transition game. They were impressive in their first two NCAA tournament games against Hartford and Wisconsin. Then they found another way to win by attacking the paint in the Sweet 16 victory over Villanova. In a game they were never tied or trailed, the Bears held off several Arkansas runs to win the South Region championship. A pair of 3-pointers from Teague around the 4-minute mark were the difference. In the national semifinal against Houston, the Bears got a game-high 17 points from their alpha Jared Butler to take a commanding 45-20 lead at the half and cruised into the national championship. Their defense has been outstanding in the tournament. Houston shot just 38 percent for the game. The Bears have 44 steals off 80 opponent turnovers and have scored 95 points off those turnovers.
About Gonzaga: The nation’s No. 1 team never left that ranking. And while a Dec. 5 meeting with Baylor in Indianapolis was canceled due to positive COVID-19 test within the program, the Zags still played a challenging non-conference schedule that included Kansas, West Virginia, Iowa and Virginia. The most dynamic offense in all of college basketball, the Zags were rarely ever stressed as all but one game (d. West Virginia, 87-82) was decided by single digits. Ironically, that game was played in Indianapolis right before Baylor played Illinois. And in that game, Suggs suffered a scary ankle injury in the first half but was able to return to the game. Gonzaga trailed that game at halftime, 39-34. What makes this team so difficult to defend is how quickly it moves the ball, reverses it from side to side and makes teams switch faster than they would like. Gonzaga has a crazy team 1.6 assists-to-turnovers ratio. Suggs is a likely NBA draft Top 3-5 pick. Timme, the native from Richardson, has become a dynamic player in the post leading this team in scoring, rebounding and shooting 65 percent from the floor. Kispert is one of the nation’s top 3-point shooters. The starting five scores 79 percent of the team’s points. Before the UCLA scare, there was a moment of concern. In the West Coast Conference tournament championship on March 9, the Zags trailed BYU at halftime, 53-41, before getting it together in the second half to win 88-78. The NCAA tournament run was pretty much a waltz in the West Region before the epic Final Four matchup with the Bruins. A key charge that Drew Timme drew sent the game into overtime (81-81) before Suggs’ 35-footer at the horn at the end of OT gave the Zags the win. It was a game that will be talked about for years.
How Baylor wins: Baylor can’t be anything that it’s not. Any idea of going away from what it has done all season – minus the second half against Villanova – would be a risky decision. Drew probably understands that. But the Zags will be the toughest defensive test for the Bears this year. Gonzaga is first in the nation in scoring offense (91.6), field goal percentage (55.0), two-point percentage (63.9), scoring margin (22.5) and points in the paint (49.6). Still, it will come back to the fundamentals on how this defense was created. That’s going to start with Mitchell and how he picks up Suggs and what he does with him. Baylor won’t slow Gonzaga down entirely. But it has to get key stops along the way. And this team is going to have to be good from the arc like it was against Houston (11-24). This is a game where it needs Jared Butler for all 40 minutes. Plus, there’s going to have to be a creative way to defend Timme.
How Gonzaga wins: If the Zags can move the ball faster than how Baylor reacts to it, that should create enough good looks for the likes of Kispert, Suggs and Ayayi. Then it comes down to feeding Timme in the post and making Baylor stop that. The Bears really struggled against that in the loss at Kansas and have had a tendency to be susceptible to opponents picking on them. Baylor really hasn’t seen a bona fide big man since KU’s David McCormack went for 22 in Lawrence, KS. However, the Zags’ approach is going to have to be more about what they do on defense to try and stop Baylor’s dynamic back court and try and take one or two away from the Bears attack. Gonzaga opponents are shooting 42 percent for the year and 32 percent from the arc. However, this is the nation’s best 3-point shooting team (41.2) it is facing. The Zags are also going to have to withstand Baylor’s bench because Baylor is the deeper team.
Baylor Key Stat: The Bears are +8.4 in turnover margin in the NCAA tournament
Gonzaga Key Stat: The Zags' 35 straight wins (a new program record) dating back to the 2019-20 season is the longest active streak in nation, along with its 14 straight victories on a neutral court.
Prediction: Gonzaga’s national perception of a great program playing in a weak conference has long since subsided. The Zags have proven themselves over time to be worthy of everything they have received over the years. Essentially, this really comes down to what Baylor can do on the arc offensively and what it can do in the paint defensively. It’s a real challenge. UCLA and BYU showed that the Zags are not invincible. But Baylor has to hit about 35-38 percent from the arc and try to hold Timme below his average. Keeping him at 15 point would be a victory. For me, this comes down to the Bears’ bench between Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua, Adam Flagler and Matthew Mayer. They’ve combined to average 25 in this NCAA tournament run. The deeper team finds a way and cuts down the nets late Monday night.
Baylor 80, Gonzaga 77