No. 18/18 Baylor (6-0, 3-0)) at Oklahoma State (4-2, 1-2)

Site: Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK

Time/Day: 3:00 p.m. Saturday

TV/Radio: FOX/ESPN Central Texas

Betting Line: Oklahoma State -4

Series: Oklahoma State leads, 20-17

The demons of Stillwater, OK make their way around the Baylor football program every other year.

By now, the history of this series between the No. 18 Bears and the Cowboys is so well known that the faithful can quote it without even giving it a second thought.

But for the sake of due diligence: Baylor has won only once up there since 1939. That was 2015.

Oddly, that the was the game where a very raw Chris Johnson came off the bench for an injured Jarret Stidham in the cold and somehow directed the Bears to a 45-35 victory.

The 2017 59-16 nightmare was a reminder of how other trips have looked. Yet there are two knowns when it comes to history. First, history can’t be changed. Second, new history can be created.

Of course, these Bears would prefer the latter. A win in Stillwater would accomplish three things:

>Two wins in the last three trips

>Clinch a winning season

>Remain at least atop of the Big 12 standings

However, the Bears understand there are several things working against them. The Cowboys are coming off a bye. The Cowboys are celebrating homecoming. Baylor lost its 1A defensive player in senior middle linebacker Clay Johnston (defensive end James Lynch is A) to a season ending knee injury and must hope sophomore Terrel Bernard can fill the void.

Oklahoma State is also a wounded team. A bitter 45-35 loss at Texas Tech was unexpected. The Cowboys aren’t going to be playing the Big 12 championship game. But they have to get their season back on track.

“To me, I look at it like this: They’re a great team with great players. And we’re coming in there and we didn’t play as well as we wanted to on Saturday,’’ Baylor head coach Matt Rhule said. “We’ve got to go get ourselves a little bit better. It will come down to blocking and tackling and covering and catching and all those things. But, the pageantry and everything else that’s around it, I love it. I think it’s an amazing place. It’s a hard place to play, it’s a hard place to win. But you know what, we like challenges and we’re going to do our best. And I can’t worry about them, I can only worry about us.”

Here are some elements to look for…

>The No. 1 matchup of this game is Bernard vs. Oklahoma State sophomore running back Chuba Hubbard, who leads the country with 1,094 rushing yards. This is Bernard’s debut and he somehow will have to diagnose a running back who averages nearly seven yards per carry and two touchdowns per game. With a three-man front a lot of running plays are going to flow to the middle.

>Oklahoma State redshirt freshman quarterback Spencer Sanders could have a shorter leash if his Big 12 turnover problems continue. Sanders has thrown eight interceptions but seven in conference play. Hawaii transfer Dru Brown could be waiting in the wings if Baylor’s defense continues the trend. Oklahoma State’s offensive line is also dealing with some injuries and re-shuffling and it could help the Big 12’s best sacking team (23) to create some more opportunities. Oklahoma State has surrendered the second-most sacks in the conference (19).

>Tylan Wallace is OSU’s alpha wide receiver with 39 receptions and 703 yards. That’s 6.5 grabs per game. There really isn’t a bona fide No. 2 unless you want to count Dillon Stoner. But he has only 224 receiving yards and averages less than 10 yards per catch. So it wouldn’t be too much of a stretch to see the Bears double Wallace.

>Speaking of No. 2 wide receivers, there’s no question that Tyquan Thornton has earned that for the Bears. He’s asserted himself ever since Big 12 play opened Sept. 28 against Iowa State. Of his 24 receptions and 411 receiving yards, 19 and 316 have come in the Big 12 play. Thornton and Denzel Mims are emerging as a solid 1-2 punch.

Notable

> Baylor is 6-0 for the fifth time this decade, the fourth-most in FBS behind only Clemson, Alabama and Ohio St. that have each reached that total seven times in the time period.

Keys to the Game

>The SS Cowboy: If you’re the Baylor defense and you want to take something away, you do your best to contain Hubbard understanding that he’s going to get his fair share of yards. But given the way Sanders has played in recent games, the Bears may force him to beat them and dare him to make big plays and passes. If he does, they can tip their collective cap to him.

>Surviving the middle: Indeed, all Rhule wants to Bernard to do is just go out and play…let it rip if you will. But the bottom line is that Bernard is going to have to be ready for anything and everything. Can he cover the mistakes Johnston covered? Will his IQ be serviceable for a first time start? We’re about to find out.

>The middle and the end: Baylor has owned its opposition in the second quarter, outscoring it, 76-7. But it has been outscored in the fourth quarter, 58-41. Some of that was due to garbage scores in the blowout non-conference schedule. But they have been outscored 34-20 in that quarter in league games thanks to blowing leads in the final 15 against Iowa State and Texas Tech. If they have the lead going into the fourth quarter Saturday, they have to finish. That’s probably one of the last things an up and coming program needs to learn – how to finish.

>They need the Power: Football is a field position game. Baylor needs a heck of a lot more out of Issac Power who just hasn’t been very good this season. He’s averaging 37 yards per kick. He doesn’t flip the field. When you’re on the road you need your punter to make a difference.

Prediction

When I did my preseason prediction going into the season opener against SFA, I said Baylor was going to lose this one. But something has changed leading up to this game. The Bears have a pretty solid defense. They have a really solid QB. They have more a few more offensive weapons.

Oklahoma State’s offense of Spencer, Hubbard and Wallace are a mini version of the The Triplets. But in the college game, you need more than one wide receiver and running back.

This will be the most difficult environment the Bears will be in at this point of the season. But I like the way they’re playing and just have this sense that the defensive line will create enough pressure on Sanders to force some mistakes. And if it’s close and late and Baylor has the ball, that’s right where Charlie Brewer wants it.

Baylor 27, Oklahoma State 20