TCU (1-3, 1-3) at Baylor (1-2, 1-2)
Site: McLane Stadium, Waco
Time/Day: 2:30 p.m. Saturday TV/Radio: ESPN2/ESPN Central Texas
Betting Line: TCU – 2½
Series: TCU leads, 55-53-7
Sometimes, the schedule can do a team a favor when it least expects it. As it turns out, Baylor needed to play its archrival TCU this week in the 116th renewal of the series.
Following a disappointing performance at Texas this past Saturday, the Bears returned to Waco with a locker room filled with frustration. Players like running backs John Lovett and Trestan Ebner explored the idea of opting out before they were convinced to remain with the program.
Then there was a player’s only meeting on Monday to air out the concerns and other issues in order to try and put things in a better place. Tuesday produced one of the better practices of the season.
“I think the energy we had on offense and defense,’’ junior linebacker Terrel Bernard said. "We came out there from the first snap and it was just competition, and that’s what Tuesdays are for us. It’s the chance to compete and we’re not really worried about anything else but making each other better, and that’s what we did.”
Baylor plays its first home game since its season opener on Sept. 26 against Kansas. It’s also the last time it’s won a game. Of course, the pandemic played a factor in the dry spell because there was a pause, and a game (Oklahoma State) was rescheduled.
With the Horned Frogs coming to Waco, the scenario is set for two programs that are in dire need of a win and should do whatever it takes to do that. TCU is having its own problems with a 1-3 record and looking pretty poor on offense in doing so. Surprisingly, its defense has not been all that imposing either.
Baylor hasn’t won consecutive games in this series since 2013 and 2014. It’s coming off the memorable 29-23 triple overtime victory in Amon Carter Stadium in Fort Worth in which John Mayers drilled a 51-yard field at the end of the fourth quarter to send the game off to extras stanzas.
No matter how a season is going for one side of the rivalry or the other or both, all is almost certainly forgotten when they meet. There is the cliché of throwing the records out. In this case, both programs wish they could.
Here are some elements to look for
>So here we go again with the concerns surrounding senior quarterback Charlie Brewer and the way this offense has struggled to run the football and develop a passing game that stretches the field. Matchups can play a role in how to attack an opposing team. But there are times when a high-risk, high-reward play is needed to loosen things up for the betterment of the sideline.
>In this space last week before Texas, we mentioned the return of the starting offensive line with Connor Galvin at left tackle, Khalil Keith at left guard, Xavier Newman-Johnson at center, Blake Bedier at right guard and Jake Burton at right tackle. This is probably Take 2 because it didn’t turn out that way. And this group has yet to play a down thus far. If everybody was back by Wednesday and ready to go, don’t look for textbook blocking. It’s still going to take a little while for everyone to get together.
>Head coach Dave Aranda made what you would call his two first big decisions as a head coach when he decided to punt at his 44 on the first possession of the game and then punt at the Texas 30. This is still an on-the-job training experience scenario for him. It will be interesting to see how he adjusts from those decisions to what he is faced with Saturday against the Horned Frogs.
>Actions will speak louder than the words. If the Baylor player’s body language is good at the start – no doubt it will be – and maintains throughout, then that’s a good sign something really tangible came out of those meetings on Monday. Every team will have to work through difficulty. Family’s fight. It just happens. How they react and move on is another story.
Notable
Baylor junior LB Terrel Bernard has 199 career stops and has 18 TFL and nine sacks in his 30 games (16 starts). He’s averaging 11.09 tackles per game in his last 11 games as a starter.
Keys to the Game
>Start to start – For an offense that really needs to get going, this group probably needs to find one in the worst way just because of how slow things have begun. In Baylor’s first possession against Kansas, West Virginia and Texas resulted in a punt. It’s not crucial that Baylor score on that initial possession. But it needs to make TCU work on defense.
>Charlie be Charlie – The handwringing over what he is or isn’t this season is one of the major story lines developing this year. Whether it’s the offense, the offensive line or him, something needs to change. If Baylor is going to have him roll out more and try more zone reads to run, then that should be a part of the plan. If it’s not part of the plan then there’s a reason for that. Hopefully, this is the week where Brewer 2018 and 2019 returns.
>Run the ball – Baylor potentially could have lost its top two backs in because of how their roles were being defined this season. The lack of touches or just the way they are being used played a part in this. What OC Larry Fedora does to incorporate them in the game plan should be something to watch. Plus, it makes sense to commit to running the ball since TCU has struggled to stop it allowing 175.5 yards per game.
>Harass Duggan – Baylor’s defense is having a solid season to this point. It has eight sacks through the first three games. That’s a pretty good number. TCU’s offensive line has had its issues where its QBs have been sacked 13 times. Given how DC Ron Roberts incorporates blitz packages into his scheme, if Baylor can make Duggan uncomfortable, it should go a long way toward winning this game.
Prediction
Hopefully, grievances have been addressed and there is a sense of community within the Baylor locker room. I’ve always said when it’s right on the inside, it’s going to be right on the field. Baylor is not an untalented team. It’s still searching for an identity. TCU is a desperate team that doesn’t want to fall into a 1-4 hole. Never discount how personal Gary Patterson makes these matchups. He won in Waco in 2018, 16-9, with a third-string QB. Baylor really needs a good start. It needs to jump on TCU fast if it can. That said, I still believe this will be close. That’s what the series suggests as six of the last nine meetings have been decided by a touchdown or less. This is a game that tells where the rest of this season is heading. Baylor is happy to be home.
Baylor 20, TCU 17
