No. 10 Oklahoma (8-1, 5-1) at No. 13 Baylor (9-0, 6-0)
Site: McLane Stadium, Waco
Time/Day: 6:30 p.m. Saturday
TV/Radio: ABC/ESPN Central Texas
Betting Line: Oklahoma -10
Series: Oklahoma leads, 24-3
Baylor has played football for 118 seasons. Only two times has a team ever begun 9-0. The 112th (2013) and 118th editions did it.
But the 118th can do something the other 117 could not do.
Start a season at 10-0.
Fittingly, it would seem that if this program is going to break through a new threshold, the opponent couldn’t be bigger than blue blood Oklahoma. Fittingly, if Baylor is going to do it, it would come on a national stage.
The opportunity presents itself Saturday evening on ABC when the No. 13 Bears face the No. 10 Sooners at McLane Stadium. Of course, the opening act is ESPN’s College GameDay hosting in Waco for the third time.
Sold out since Monday, the Bears are not only looking to maintain their hold of sole possession of first place but potentially lock up a spot in the Big 12 championship game Dec. 7 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington.
“I think they’ve embraced the 1-0 mindset because the outside importance on each game is only there if you win the previous ones, so it only stacks upon each other,’’ Baylor head coach Matt Rhule said. “But, I think it’s coming from the players. The fact that we can win and they can still not be satisfied is unbelievable and it’s hard to do. And as a coach, it keeps me in check. Sometimes, I come in like, ‘Hey, we won. And that was a hard game.’ And the guys are saying, ‘We need to do this better.’
It seems to have taken hold because the Bears have found a way to win all the nail-biters. In four of their first six Big 12 games, the Bears have won by six points or less and two of those in overtime.
Then remember that in three of those – Iowa State, Texas Tech and TCU – the Bears had to drive late in the game to either pull it out or send it to overtime.
That’s the difference in one play. That’s the difference in one call. That’s the difference in one bounce.
Against the Sooners, Baylor will be facing the most talented skill team it has seen in 2019. Oklahoma is putting up arcade game numbers at 587 yards and 48 points per game. Those easily leads the Big 12.
Baylor has made its living with a stingy defense that is becoming even more stingy as the season continues. Before overtime, Baylor has held five of six opponents to 21 points or less. Oklahoma State was the only exception.
The question will be is if this unit can contain a group with more options than the first six Big 12 opponents presented.
Here are some elements to look for…
>Senior safety Chris Miller returns from his one-game suspension at TCU after picking up his third targeting penalty on Halloween against West Virginia. His impact in the secondary will be felt. Yet because of his new reputation, opposing coaches have likely talked to their players about Miller.
>Oklahoma’s running game is definitely different than it has been in years past. QB Jalen Hurd is the team’s leading rusher (869 yards) and is second in the Big 12. With Trey Sermon gone for the year with a knee injury, more will likely be thrust upon Kennedy Brooks. Brooks gave the Bears headaches in last year’s meeting in Norman when he rushed for two long touchdown runs.
>The Sooners’ defense has a personality complex. On one hand, this group doesn’t force any turnovers. The six collected are tied with Kansas with fewest in the conference. But OU is good at stopping people on third down (30 percent) and sacking the QB (the 23 sacks rank third). Baylor has allowed the second most sacks in the conference (24). What that means Saturday night is anyone’s guess. After a good start, it’s been beat up in its last two games against Kansas State and Iowa State allowing 89 points.
>Looking at the best 1-2 receiving combos in the league? It’s probably Saturday night in Waco. Baylor has its two in Denzel Mims (675 yards, 8TD) and Tyquan Thornton (612, 3TD). Oklahoma has its two in CeeDee Lamb (983, 13TD) and Charleston Rambo (574 5TD).
Notable…
Between his tenures at Temple and Baylor, Matt Rhule defenses have forced two or more turnovers in 34 of 84 (40.48%) career games coached, including six times in 2019’s first nine games.
Keys to the Game
>Lost in the 1st Quarter – Rhule is right that games are not won in the first quarter. Well, they typically not unless the opponent is really bad. But they can be lost in the first quarter. If Baylor starts slow again, it needs its defense to hold serve and keep the Sooners from jumping out too fast if at all.
>One is better than two – Obviously, Hurts is a great dual threat. Beyond his rushing yards, he’s thrown for 2,742 yards and 24 scores. Some of his dynamic plays can be when he’s running. However, Hurts track record is that he’s prone to the big mistake. Last week against Iowa State that nearly cost the Sooners. Baylor must do all that it can to make him pocket passing QB. If it can do that, then the chance skyrocket for Baylor win this.
>Red Zone execution – If this becomes an up and down game, Baylor can’t trade or even settle for field goals in the final 20 yards. The Bears have to score. They are ninth in red zone offense at 84.6 percent (33-39). But they also scored only 25 touchdowns.
>Home field advantage – With an expected packed house, McLane Stadium has to be a force in Baylor’s favor. It needs to be loud so Hurts can’t hear and must go to hand signals. It must create an energy the Baylor players can feed off of to help them even in periods of adversity.
Prediction
The biggest game to be played in the Rhule era is afoot. Baylor is playing with so much confidence right now. Oklahoma is likely feeling better about itself but probably not much since it’s been pretty vulnerable in the last two games. With some injuries impacting that unit, Baylor can take advantage.
I’ve been saying since the summer, Baylor QB Charlie Brewer is the best in the Big 12. He has presence to him that no other league signal caller has. And if the game is on the line again, his track record for responding does the talking for him.
Baylor 33, Oklahoma 28
