No. 14 Iowa State (2-1) at Baylor (3-0, 1-0)

Site: McLane Stadium, Waco

Time/Day: 2:30 p.m. Saturday

TV/Radio: FOX/ESPN Central Texas

Betting Line: Iowa State -7

Series: Baylor leads, 10-9

Human emotions change on a moment’s notice. For months Baylor vs. Iowa State on Sept. 25 was looked at with some angst but also some confidence. But that dates was a ways off.

Then when the football season started in the same month as this game, there was still a feeling of safety because the game was still weeks away and no one had to really think about it.

But as days ticked off the calendar and the fourth Saturday of the month approached after the 45-7 win at Kansas, it became reality. The clock could not be turned back.

No. 14 Iowa State visits McLane Stadium Saturday.

From one moment, there’s absolute confidence Baylor can win this because of the way it played against Texas State, Texas Southern and Kansas. In the next, there’s the anxiety believing Saturday could be a tough day because Iowa State is definitely not any of those three teams.

It’s not easy being a fan of the team you support.

This game for the Bears against the Big 12 title contender Cyclones is an early referendum on where Baylor head coach Dave Aranda’s program actually is and where it needs to go.

“I’m looking forward to the challenge,’’ Aranda said. “I know our coaches are continuing to push and really emphasize the me vs. me. So competing against our standard, pushing a standard, being accountable to our standard, is going to be a main thing moving forward.

“…The standard is what is our best, like the best we’ve ever done. Let’s do that day after day and stack it, and that’s really the challenge.”

In all honesty this team probably wants to know what it is after this game.

Here are some elements to look for

>Let’s start with Baylor’s pass rush. It’s been non-existent. That’s a concern especially given the competition it has played. This isn’t about holding anything back for the Cyclones. Either you can rush the quarterback or you can’t. Baylor has just three sacks and 11 QB hurries. This front is just not getting the push the needs. It has been exponentially better against Iowa State quarterback Brock Purdy or he’s going to have too much time to look for what he wants.

>Baylor’s offensive line has the start it wants. Gerry Bohanon has been sacked only once. All BU ball carriers are averaging 7.3 yards per carry. Baylor is averaging 323 yards per game. Now, it faces an Iowa State defense, which returns 10 starters, and is playing like a veteran group allowing just 1.5 yards per carry and just 49 yards per game (192.7 total per game). Baylor wants to establish the running game. Iowa State has no interest letting it become a factor. Never the two shall meet.

>Running the football is obviously a means to play physical. In a game like this, it will be interesting how much the Bears will use multiple tight ends on the front and then even use them during the game as receivers. Ben Sims has caught seven passes. Drake Dabney has two. This could be the time to let them become more of a factor to use the middle of the field and stave off the ISU front seven.

>Turnovers have been a little bit of an issue for each team. While Bohanon has not thrown an interception, the Bears have lost three fumbles. They are +2 so far, which is good for second. Then there’s Iowa State, which is -2 in the turnover ratio. It committed four of those – three Purdy interceptions - against Iowa and it cost them 20 points in a 27-17 loss.

Notable

Baylor is 6-7 so far on fourth down conversions. Iowa State’s defense has allowed just one conversion in four attempts.

Keys to the Game

>Punch them in the mouth: If you’re looking for something extravagant from this Baylor offense, it’s hard to see what exactly what that will be given what it wants to do with the running game. Against a veteran defense, this offensive line, with two transfers in Jacob Gall and Grant Miller, must show itself from the opening snap. I would expect Abram Smith to be the primary ball carrier in this one. Baylor’s not going to average 7.3 yards per attempt in this game. But if the Bears can average 3.5-4.0 yards, that’s ideal.

>What will Bohanon do?: The thinking is that Iowa State will load up the box with eight or nine and dare Bohanon to beat it with his arm. He’s likely going to have to use his feet in certain situations. Yet his arm likely will be asked to do more than it’s been asked so far. The Cyclones are a little inexperienced at safety. But they’re not at linebacker, which makes a “pick your spot” situation. Someone has to pick up for preseason All-Big 12 defensive player of the year in MLB Mike Rose, who has made 41 consecutive starts.

>Purdy good or Purdy bad: It’s no secret Purdy is one of the most respected QBs in college football. However, he has a tendency to turn it over. Witness the three INTs against Iowa all in ISU territory that led to 13 points. Baylor’s ball hawking secondary has to be a presence in this game with either key PBUs or a pick or two. And it wouldn’t hurt to get a defensive score out of those. In fact, it might be required if Baylor is going to pull this off this upset.

>The chain gang: It’s not going to be perfect. However, the Bears are going to have to minimize the number of plays behind the chains. You can live with a 2nd and 12 here and there. But it cannot be the theme of the game or else the Bears are in a lot of trouble. Plus, they have to have a favorable distance on 3rd down as well as in five yards or less.

Prediction

I absolutely think Baylor can win this game. But the Bears are not good enough to beat Iowa State straight up. With an offensive line that’s just now appearing to find the right five and get into a groove, that’s a great thing. Yet it’s facing a unit that has been together for a long time and knows how to play. The Bears tight ends need to be a real factor. And the turnovers can flip the momentum as can big plays. Aranda is enough of a defensive savant that he will make things interesting for Purdy and ISU running back Breece Hall. I could see this looking very similar to 2019 when the Cyclones visited and the Bears kicked a field goal in the waning second to pull out a 23-21 win.

Iowa State 24, Baylor 20