Texas (4-3, 2-2) at No. 16/18 Baylor (6-1, 3-1)
Site: McLane Stadium, Waco
Time/Day: 11:00 a.m. Saturday
TV/Radio: ABC/ESPN Central Texas
Betting Line: Baylor -2½
Series: Texas leads, 79-27-4
Hostility, angst and probably a little more than that becomes part of the fabric when Texas makes what could be its final appearance in Waco Saturday morning.
The pregame activities could be equally if not more entertaining than the game. When it broke in the summer that Texas and Oklahoma were leaving the Big 12 for the SEC, it left the Big 12 fragile and on the brink. But after a month of finding its voice, the league survived with the additions of BYU, Houston, Cincinnati and Central Florida.
The Baylor fan base has good reason to feel some or all of that against their neighbors 100 miles to their south. This is a game that is being played for 111th time.
However, all of that noise must be blocked out by Dave Aranda’s program. There’s an appearance in the Big 12 championship game that Baylor is pursuing. While it is Texas and all the history that comes with it, normalizing this game has to be the priority.
“With everything, there was no, ‘We’re just going to show up and let it roll.’’’ Aranda said. “Everything was something that had a philosophy behind it, and was really structured to get the most out of it. When your focus is on those things, you have the blinders on to the other things. I’m excited to get back into that phase of it, because this past week, your horizon could be big at times.”
The Bears are in the middle of this championship game appearance race because they split with Iowa State and Oklahoma State. Thanks to Iowa State knocking off Oklahoma State last week in Ames, it places the Bears, Cyclones and Cowboys in a three-way tie for second behind conference leader Oklahoma.
Texas would like to climb into the race but is facing some real challenges with losses to the Sooners and the Cowboys. The Longhorns are going to have to win out and get some help if they want to play at AT&T Stadium in Arlington on Dec. 4.
There are no more “Baylor is good but…” subplots when it comes to this team. With the exception of six quarters against Iowa State and Oklahoma State, the Bears have responded. Look no further than the last two games against West Virginia and BYU when the Bears only trailed by a total of 3:23 in clock time. That was in the second quarter against BYU when the Cougars took a 7-3 lead only to have Baylor respond with a touchdown.
This has been an interesting last decade-plus against the Longhorns. Since the Robert Griffin III-led Bears won in Austin, 30-22, in 2010, these teams have played 11 times with Texas winning six and Baylor five.
Here are some key elements to look for
>BYU exposed some weaknesses in the Baylor secondary with some deep verticals that set up scores. Raleigh Texada, Kalon Barnes and Al Walcott all had their share of issues. Texas doesn’t have its second most productive receiver in Jordan Whittington who is out with a clavicle injury. Texas coach Steve Sarkisian has to decide if what he saw on film vs. BYU presented some opportunities or not and take his shots with Xavier Worthy and others.
>The trend in football at all levels is everybody going for it on fourth down. And it doesn’t matter where the ball is on the field. Baylor leads the conference in attempts (18) and successful conversions (13). Texas has gone for it 13 times and made it seven times. Why so many attempts? Each isn’t very good converting third down. Baylor is ninth in the league at 39 percent. Texas is right at 40 percent.
>Baylor’s pass rush this season has been pretty much average all season. With Gabe Hall cracking the starting lineup the last two weeks, there’s hope there will be more of a spark. Texas quarterback Casey Thompson is elusive and keep plays alive in the pocket. But he also has a tendency to make the big mistake. Some heat could change the way he surveys the field.
>It should be entertaining watching two of the conference’s best running backs in Texas’ Bijon Robinson (1st, 924 yards) and Baylor’s Abram Smith (3rd, 785 yards). They mirror each other a little bit in their style. But the one back who has the better day likely will lead to his team having the better day. Baylor’s linebackers – Terrel Bernard, Dillon Doyle and the interchangeable trio of Ashton Logan, Matt Jones and Garmon Randolph – will be a focal point.
Notable
Texas is 35-48 all-time when it has played at a ranked team. Baylor is in the national polls.
Keys to the Game
>Letting Gerry be Gerry: For the previous two weeks, the Baylor coaching staff has given junior starting quarterback Gerry Bohanon the freedom to take and run this offense. There have been few flaws. He’s handled every situation and made very shrewd decisions when the situation has called for it. Even if Baylor is behind at any point including in the fourth quarter, nothing should change.
>LOS: Baylor has shown that its offensive line has made a great transformation. That’s why this team leads the conference in total offense (471) and rushing (238). Given that Texas has had a lot of defensive problems and is eighth and total defense (433) and can’t stop the run (201) the Bears must exploit this.
>Stoic day: With all of the energy in the stadium, this team has to do a great job of feeding off the Baylor crowd when that happens and at the same time don’t let the angst about what this game is about interfere with the game at hand. College athletics will always add more off-the-field emotion to its games. Coaches have to manage that constantly.
>Meet the moment: Baylor has not been in too many either/or contests. It held on against Iowa State (31-29) and lost at Oklahoma State (24-14) when the Cowboys scored late to put it away. Texas has had consecutive fourth quarter issues against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. The question will be is if this game gets into the final period with a one score difference either way, the other team is going to have to find that extra gear to respond.
Prediction
A team usually reflects its coach. Baylor’s subdued approach has helped build this 6-1 record because of what Aranda asks of it. Sarkisian has shown his nerves and his team fumbled away chances to be in control of the Big 12. Texas will make its push and make its plays. Baylor will make its plays. Both teams are really good in the turnover ratio. Baylor +6 and Texas +4.
I’ve said all week I do believe Baylor will play well in this game because of the big picture. This is another step with hopes of playing on the first Saturday in December.
Baylor 30, Texas 23
