Texas State (1-1) at No. 17 Baylor (1-1)

Site: McLane Stadium, Waco

Time/Day: 11:00 a.m., Saturday

TV/Radio: FS1/ESPN Central Texas

Betting Line: Baylor -30

Series: Baylor leads, 8-0

Perhaps the schedule makers did Baylor a favor for this third game of the 2022 season. Rather than sit round all morning or all day before they played, the Bears get to mentally put last Saturday's loss at BYU behind them and start in the morning.

Of course, national champion aspirations likely were crippled by that loss to the Cougars. But that can wait. There's plenty of time for things to change. Plus, the Bears begin their chase for a second consecutive Big 12 title (fourth overall) next Saturday at Iowa State.

For now, the idea is to fix what didn't go well in Utah and start with a clean slate against the Bobcats Saturday morning on Family Weekend.

"I think we need great energy. We need great execution,'' Baylor HC Dave Aranda said. "So, there's a renewal every time. So, you'd like to see that. And I think you'd like to be able to see, in the heat of the moment and when we create pressure and competitiveness in practice, you like to see an attempt at discipline. Where it's not just the nodding of the head and all of it but the application of it, and see if that can pass over to Saturday.''

Here are some key elements to look for

>The chances of seeing running back Taye McWilliams and wide receiver Monaray Baldwin for this game are questionable, Aranda said Monday. Both took vicious hits on Saturday and are possibly dealing with concussion type of issues. The only reason to play them would be if they were through it and wanted to get back out there and talked their way into it. Truly, Baylor doesn't need them.

>Linebacker Dillon Doyle is likely to miss the first half of this game because of the targeting ejection that was upheld from a play that occurred in the fourth quarter. There's no word if Baylor appealed and if it did appeal, what the ruling was. Baylor officials would not comment on it. At the very least, the Bears would get Doyle back for the second half. The likely starter in the middle would be either Tyrone Brown, Josh White or Brooks Miller. There's a chance they could all rotate through the first half.

>Assessing the passing game's lackluster performance in Provo was a combination of OC Jeff Grimes being very conservative with QB Blake Shapen and wide eyed receivers not sure how to handle the environment. But there has to be a commitment of being more vertical. It's fair to say Baylor gave BYU too much respect on that front.

>Creating turnovers is something that has been missing through the first two games. The Bears have only one. They have to figure out a way to create extra opportunities. They are facing a team that is turnover prone. Texas State has committed six through its first two games.

Notable

Baylor is looking for its eighth consecutive home win.

Keys to the Game

>Discipline - A brutal night with the flags (14 for 117 yards) wiped out many positive plays and put the Bears in a really difficult spot. There must be a reversal of those and attention to detail.

>Big Uglies getting nasty - For as much as the Baylor offensive line was praised for its renaissance in the 2021, it wasn't anything close to that last week. The running game was pretty average (2.9 ypc). Shapen was sacked four times, even if he was rolling out and got sacked that way. It wasn't just one spot that struggled. All of them did. They just need to play better as a unit.

>No sleeping - Big 12 play opens next season. This is a game where the Bears are a four touchdown-plus favorite. They need to be engaged and not turn it on and then then turn it off. That can become a habit that turns into real problem over a season. Aranda stresses complimentary football. While BYU had something to do with some of that, the Bears have to execute because they need to feel better about the way they are playing heading into Ames.

Keep it clean - Lost in the analysis of setback to BYU is that this team hasn't committed a turnover. In fact, it hasn't even fumbled. That's a great habit. Obviously, that's going to be hard to maintain for an entire season, but if the Bears keep that kind of thing going, they will always have a chance to win.

Prediction

No one should have thought about approaching the ledge and consider jumping off of it last week. The Bears lost to a really good ranked team in their building...in overtime. When you go into overtime, it becomes a game of chance. It would behoove Baylor to come out fast. You should know if the Bears did that following the first two offensive and defensive possessions. Should that happen, then the Bears will be on their way. Texas State is a little better. Maybe they hit a couple of plays. But if the Baylor defense plays to the level that it can, then there is momentum.

Baylor 38, Texas State 10