No. 8 Oklahoma (9-0, 6-0) at No. 13 Baylor (7-2, 4-2)

Site: McLane Stadium, Waco

Time/Day: 11:00 a.m., Saturday

TV/Radio: FOX/ESPN Central Texas

Betting Line: Oklahoma -5½

Series: Oklahoma leads, 28-3

The deeper the 2021 season goes for Baylor, it’s pretty clear what the reality is.

Win or else.

While the Bears have been bowl eligible for the last three weeks, they still remain in the hunt for an appearance in the Big 12 championship game.

Their hopes were dealt a severe blow last week in Fort Worth when TCU pulled off the 30-28 upset. Not only did the No. 13 Bears fall one game behind Oklahoma State in the Big 12 standings for the second spot, it’s actually two since the Bears lost in Stillwater, 24-14, on Oct. 2.

This potential final meeting with the Sooners in Waco carries urgency for the Bears who need to win this in order to revive their chances. A loss pretty much ends their hopes.

Oklahoma has won the last seven meetings in this series. The last time they were in Waco was in 2019 when they rallied from a 28-3 hole to pull out a bizarre 34-31 victory. It was a second half where Baylor virtually never had the ball.

However, there are some leaks springing on Baylor’s ship. The pass rush has become pretty ordinary. That’s played a role in the secondary getting chewed up for the last three games starting with BYU. Now, quarterback Gerry Bohanon is facing his first slump. He’s thrown four interceptions in his last 50 attempts.

“The thing what’s most frustrating for me is that some of these improvements have been too long coming,’’ Baylor head coach Dave Aranda said. “They’ve been a thorn in our side for too long. So I think us as coaches we’re doing that and being creative in ways to address it. Conversations with the team Saturday night through Sunday have been strong and productive. A lot of guys were down after the game, so the process of bringing them up only makes us stronger. Anticipating a strong day to day and looking forward to getting the team back together, and attacking this week.”

There is also quite the buildup for this one. FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff show is on campus and precedes the game.

Here are some elements to look for

>Baylor is having two different seasons. The one on the road has been wobbly, filled with mistakes and of course, its two losses (Oklahoma State and TCU). The season at McLane Stadium has been exceptional. They’ve played crisp. Relished with big crowds and taken control of the last three games in the second half against West Virginia, BYU and Texas. The Bears are 5-0 on The Brazos.

>The Bears have a streak of collecting a turnover in 17 consecutive games. However, Oklahoma leads the Big 12 in turnover ratio +6 and has the most takeaways of any defense 16. Given that both defenses find a way to do that, that could be a part of how this is decided.

>This Oklahoma’s only third road game of the year. The season opener against Tulane should have been played in New Orleans. However, Hurricane Ida forced that game to be moved back to Norman. The Sooners’ first two trips away from Owen Field have been wobbly. They struggled at Kansas State (37-31) and they trailed at the half at Kansas, 10-0, before rallying in the second half to win, 35-23.

>Bohanon’s psyche is now being tested. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. It’s not going to be sunshine and rainbows all the time. All quarterbacks go through slumps. While Aranda and players have said the right things to the media, it still comes down to Bohanon mentally doing it. And should he throw another INT, he’s going to have battle back from him.

Notable

Baylor is 1 of 5 Power-5 teams ranked top-30 nationally in scoring offense and scoring defense (Baylor, Alabama, UGA, Michigan, Ohio St.)

Keys to the Game

Contain Caleb: Since Oklahoma coach Lincoln Riley switched QBs from Spencer Rattler to Caleb Williams in the Texas game, the Sooners’ offense has been much more in sync. It’s not on all cylinders yet. But Williams is a legit dual threat. Because he can run, Baylor has to decide how it wants to defend him. Blitzing him is risky because DC Ron Roberts tried that last week against TCU and Chandler Morris and it blew up on him.

Consistently run: When the Bears are at home, their running game looks sharp. It needs to be better than sharp led by 1,000-yard rusher Abram Smith. The Sooners are third in the conference against the run allowing 108 yards per game. Baylor doesn’t have to hit its average of 231 game. But it sure needs to exceed Oklahoma’s average.

Seeing Red: The Bears have been good in the Red Zone with 28 touchdowns in 37 attempts. But against Oklahoma’s defense, which has been good and bad throughout the season, this offense can’t settle for field goals. Trading field goals for touchdowns with the Sooners isn’t going to work. Dave Aranda has made it clear he will go for it on fourth down. The 15 fourth down conversions are 11th in the country. Why change skippers.

Keep it close: Baylor has been really good in the fourth quarter for most of the year. Really, that’s been at home. This needs to be a tight game when it’s coming into the fourth quarter. Obviously, if Baylor is leading then the Bears have to find a way to finish it. But if they’re trailing, the max can trail by is probably 10. And that might be asking too much. But they’re at home so you give them some benefit of the doubt.

Prediction

The recent history of this series with the Sooners has been entertaining even though it has been one-sided. The Bears have made it tough on Oklahoma to ever feel comfortable.

That needs to continue. Bohanon has to bounce back. I think Baylor can win it. I just don’t think the Bears are going to simply because of their pass rush issues. BYU exposed something last month and it hasn’t been settled since. While Oklahoma’s offense still isn’t a work of art, it’s still explosive enough. Baylor hangs with OU but falls short.

Oklahoma 33, Baylor 24