No. Baylor (7-1, 4-1) at TCU (3-5, 1-4)

Site: Amon Carter Stadium, Fort Worth

Time/Day: 2:30 p.m. Saturday

TV/Radio: FOX/ESPN Central Texas

Betting Line: Baylor -7½

Series: TCU leads, 56-53-7

Baylor was a wounded program back in 2016. Art Briles had been fired over the Memorial Day weekend as a result of the sexual assault scandal. Grant Teaff asked old friend Jim Grobe to step in and manage the program through the season while changes awaited for a new athletic director and subsequently a new head football coach.

Surprisingly, the program began 6-0 including a last-second field goal to win at Iowa State and were ranked as high as No. 8. But then the roof began to collapse. In early October, Baylor coaches tweeted in unison #truthdontlie to support Briles. Then the Bears lost at Texas, 35-34, on Oct. 29. When arch rival TCU visited on Nov. 5, the Baylor players wore black to signal their support. It would have felt like that was the motivation needed to take it to their arch rivals from Fort Worth. And if you can’t get up for the rival…

However, it was the reverse. The team wasn’t engaged. The only hurrah was Baylor scored first. After that the Horned Frogs punished the Bears in a 62-22 demolition at McLane Stadium. It turned out to be Baylor’s worst home loss since 2005. So much for the extra juice the rival presents.

Now, five years after the day of that meeting in Waco, TCU is the wounded rival. After more than 20 years, Gary Patterson won’t be on the sidelines. A tumultuous meeting with TCU administration last Sunday led to him and the university to separate. The Horned Frogs are playing bad football. Their defense is in shambles. Their starting quarterback Max Duggan may not play. It’s not clear if running back Zach Evans will do the same or if he’s even in Fort Worth. There are questions whether TCU is really “into it” after being pretty listless the last two weeks.

Like Baylor fans were hoping in 2016, TCU fans are hoping the arch rival coming to their place is just what is needed to give this team a boost. It could be fact. It could be fiction.

“I think they’re going to be very motivated,’’ Baylor head coach Dave Aranda said of TCU. “I think there’s a rivalry, to start. I think the pieces are there, the talent is there. In watching the tape, it’s been a little off here, a little off there. You talk about doing 1/11th, there’s eight or nine guys doing this, and then the two guys are not or whatever it is, and then they get hit. There’s things like that that show on tape.

“It’s not something that’s hard to diagnose. I think they’re really close. So I think for them to have a spark, for them to rally which I anticipate they’re going to do, makes it that tougher of the game.”

Strangely, this is Baylor’s first road game in 34 days. After playing at Oklahoma State on Oct. 2, they were in Waco for all of October. So wearing the road whites will feel different.

Here are some elements to look for

>While TCU is in the early phases of searching for Patterson’s replacement, the question is going to be how much will the Horned Frogs be ready to play under interim and place-holder Jerry Kill. Kill has been a college head coach, most recently at Minnesota. But when a shock to a program happens like it does, the motivation to play hard for four quarters is hard to sustain.

>Baylor’s reaction to all of this noise at TCU is going to be interesting. Of course, the Bears are removed from it until they arrived in Fort Worth on Friday. They can’t presume TCU is going to mail it in. They’ll walk into a stadium that should have a strange feel to it. There will be some energy. There will also be some hollowness. However, they have to keep in mind they're in the middle of getting to the Big 12 championship game. They are tied for second with Oklahoma State (before Saturday's kickoff they wouldn't go because they don't have the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Cowboys) behind Oklahoma and have to keep pushing to keep themselves in contention.

>If Duggan isn’t available because of a fractured foot, then the start at quarterback for TCU goes to Chandler Morris, the son of Allen head coach and former SMU and Arkansas head coach Chad Morris. Chandler finished the game last week at Kansas State throwing for 111 yards. It would be his first collegiate start.

>Baylor has forced a turnover in 16 consecutive games. Considering TCU is pretty loose with the ball and has turned it over 11 times and is -3 overall but -4 in conference play. Baylor is tied with Oklahoma for the league lead at +6. It’s the right combination for Baylor and the wrong one for TCU.

Notable

>Baylor has allowed only six sacks in 2021

Keys to the Game

War is Hell: Union general William Tecumseh Sherman was right. Baylor just has to focus on what it does, what it does well and make sure the chaos surrounding TCU’s program doesn’t somehow impact the way it plays. It shouldn’t. But with 18-22-year-olds, they’re going to have to be reminded about every two minutes. However, they have to keep in mind they're in the middle of getting to the Big 12 championship game.

Abram and others: Baylor running back Abram Smith is at 901 rushing yards for the year and could blow past 1,000 yards in this one. Baylor leads the Big 12 at 234 rushing yards per game. TCU is ninth in rushing defense at 204 allowed per game. It’s hard to see how those trends would change unless either or both have an out of body experience.

Cleanliness: Baylor has committed one turnover in its last two games. That’s partly why this team has been so fundamentally sound and not beating itself over the last two games. As Aranda said, “they’re listening.’’ Obviously, you would take that kind of laundry performance every game. But if the Bears can limit themselves to five or less, they will be OK.

TCU surprise: The Horned Frogs likely will try something drastic early in an attempt to set a tone. That could be a trick play or just a straight deep vertical. Baylor knows all about trick plays. But the key is going to be how Baylor reacts to this and make sure that it doesn’t get away from the game plan that is has established.

Prediction

This game is likely going to go one of two ways. Either TCU hangs in there and finds a way to win a close one. Baylor wins in a blowout. I don’t doubt the Horned Frogs will try to muster their hatred toward Baylor as best they can early in this game. Sustaining manufactured emotion after a week of being on an emotional roller coaster it quite different. I see this being fairly close in the first half. Heck the Horned Frogs could have the lead. But track records mean something. Baylor doesn’t beat itself. TCU has been beating itself all season. Baylor runs the football well. TCU can’t stop it. I see the Bears getting control of this one in the third quarter and creating separation.

Baylor 38, TCU 17