Baylor (0-0) at Texas State (0-0)
Site: Bobcat Stadium, San Marcos
Time/Day: 6:00 p.m. Saturday
TV/Radio: Big 12 Now on ESPN+/ESPN Central Texas
Betting Line: Baylor -14
Series: Baylor leads, 7-0
Opening road games at Non-P5 opponents can be a little bit of a gamble for the P5 visitor. In this case, that’s Baylor. For starters, the P5 is supposed to win by a comfortable margin.
The non-P5 is going to be filled with the juices of energy with something to prove. This is that program’s chance to show it can beat the P5 with the home field advantage. That’s Texas State.
Should the script play out like it should, the P5 should withstand some early haymakers and eventually pull away in the second half simply because it’s the better team.
Baylor head coach Dave Aranda is hoping that his second opener will look similar to his first in 2020 when the Bears walloped Kansas, 47-14. Of course, nobody knew at the time the season would slip away into a disastrous 2-7 campaign with an anemic offense that didn’t support a pretty good defense.
There’s a bunch of new for this 2021 season. There’s a new starting quarterback in junior Gerry Bohanon who makes his first collegiate start. There’s a new offensive coordinator in Jeff Grimes who moved back to Texas from BYU. There’s a new offensive staff with the exception of running backs coach Justin Johnson.
Then there’s a new addition to the running game. Or should we say what’s old is new again. Abram Smith has switched back to original role to running back. He played the previous two seasons at linebacker.
The hope is that the offense will find consistency and a measure of confidence that it will be harder to get off the field. There is hope that the Baylor Bears in 2021 will be nothing like what they were in 2020, find a way to reach the postseason and perhaps cause some angst for the expected Big 12 favorites, Oklahoma and Iowa State.
“Show a real strong identity, execute fundamental things, and establish a fastball and show we can on offense run the ball and have a play-action passing game off of it,’’ Aranda said. “On defense, get a push in the middle, set edges, and tackle effectively. On special teams, show great speed and edge. I think those things are really foundational things, and that’s where it’s at as far as where the team is. It’s important for us to not look beyond that, and ask for things that are foundational and things we’ve really been building and working on for quite a while.”
Here are elements to look for
>Bohanon’s first collegiate start should be a tale of how much the coaching staff wants to put on his shoulders and see what he’s capable of showing. How aggressive do they want to be with him? How conservative do they want to be? Bohanon has said all the right things. Now, it’s all up to him.
>Apu Ika, the LSU transfer, earns the spotlight as he starts at nose tackle. Based on how he dominated in the spring game and the two fall camp scrimmages, there are high hopes for him to be one of the best in all of college football and set the tone for what could also become one of the best defenses in all of college football.
>One interesting part of this game is if there will be the development of a third receiver in this passing attack. R.J. Sneed should be fine as the alpha. Tyquan Thornton has had a great camp and could re-establish himself. Then is comes down to Josh Fleeks or Dartmouth transfer Drew Estrada or somebody else making the case.
>Baylor was +8 in the turnover ratio. Some years work better than others when it comes to that category for whatever reason. However, a defense that’s physical and sets the agenda is usually capable of producing more than its share each season. That’s what Aranda defenses eventually should become.
Notable
BU is 79-36-4 all-time in season openers. The Bears have won 11 of 12 season openers since 2009.
Keys to the Game
>Fast Start: In order to make sure this game doesn’t become too interesting in the second half, Baylor has to begin quickly, take a lead, keep it and keep going with it. The Bears have to at least keep the Bobcats at arm’s length. If we get in the middle to late stages of the third quarters and the lead is 10 points or less, that’s a little more than uncomfortable. Obviously, chasing the Bobcats is the worst case scenario.
>Gerry free: Bohanon has to be efficient. He must stand in the pocket and deliver the ball knowing full well he’s going to take a hit. He must take a sack when he should. He must be a presence at all times. There’s a lot of responsibility in that. The only way we’re going to know is if he does what he is coached to do and doesn’t start to freelance. Most importantly, he must himself on what he sees and doesn’t see.
>Fried McBride: Texas State quarterback Brady McBride is coming off a decent 2020 where he threw for nearly 2,000 yards and complete 62 percent of his passes. Baylor’s pass rush has to be relentless to make him uncomfortable. McBride really doesn’t have a go-to target. That’s good and bad. Baylor can’t focus on one player. However, it cannot assume they’re all average to below either. Texas State still may not be all that organized either. Instead of going with a traditional recruiting class, it invested heavily in the transfer portal.
>Minimize mistakes: In openers there are going to be some mistakes that you typically don’t see with delay of game penalties or procedure call because someone forgot the snap count. The more Baylor keeps away from that and doesn’t have to play behind the chains the better it will be for Bohanon.
Prediction
Just expect the Bobcats to come out and play balls out to start the game. What that will mean for the score early on is another tale. If the Bears dodge anything bizarre in the first seven minutes without anything too bad, they’ll be fine. Of course, if they start quickly that takes Texas State out of it.
I expect the offense to be a little conservative and to try and be physical with the running game between Smith and Trestan Ebner. Down, distance and where the ball is on the field – low risk situations - should dictate when Grimes will want Bohanon to take his shots. At some point Bohanon has to do that.
The anticipation of watching this defense is palpable. It’s a unit that has so many choices on where the pressure and disruption can emerge. There will be a big play here or there from the Bobcats. But this unit will create a short field for the offense to create some opportunities.
Bohanon breaks in the right way. Baylor gets it started the right way.
Baylor 38, Texas State 10
