Baylor (2-0) at Kansas (1-1)
Site: David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium, Lawrence, KS
Time/Day: 2:30 p.m. Saturday
TV/Radio: Big 12 Now on ESPN+/ESPN Central Texas
Betting Line: Baylor -17.5
Series: Baylor leads, 16-4
History reveals Baylor’s series with Kansas should not look any different in Lawrence, KS. than it does in Waco.
The Bears have won 11 consecutive meetings and with the exception of the 31-30 overtime win in Lawrence in 2011 – a game where Baylor had to rally from three scores down in the fourth quarter to pull it out – the average margin of difference in the other 10 has been 40.3 points.
Yes, it’s been that bad because Kansas has been that bad. And even when the Bears were in a rebuild (2017), they won that meeting, 38-9, in their only win of that season.
Saturday afternoon could look the same. They Jayhawks are still trying to figure things out with new head coach Lance Leipold who arrived in April. He has settled on a starting quarterback, UNT transfer Jason Bean.
But he has a roster that likely isn’t ready for much of anything else. Still, the Jayhawks could push the Bears in this one. Baylor wasn’t impressive in its season opening win against Texas State, 29-20. It took care of business against Texas Southern, 66-7, in the home opener last week.
And there’s a little pressure for Baylor head coach Dave Aranda’s team. It was expected to start the season 3-0. A win surpasses the 2020 win total (2-7).
“I feel as if we’re developing,’’ Aranda said. “I can see the confidence, particularly on offense where there was limited confidence. So I can see their confidence building from our spring scrimmages to our fall camp scrimmages to these past two games. I can see that building and there’s a formation of belief there.”
Here are some elements to look for
>Aranda said that NT Apu Ika was expected back for this game after his suspension for Texas Southern. This hasn’t been the start Ika has been looking for and for that matter, what Baylor has been looking for. Should he play, there needs to be a stronger effort to restore the idea he can be a force in the middle.
>Like Ika, the rest of the defensive front is on notice to start picking it up a notch. It’s been a disappointing start with just three sacks and eight QB hurries through the first two games against teams that were far inferior to them. It’s going to be a challenge to collect any meaningful numbers against elusive Kansas QB Jason Bean. This game may not be measured in sacks and hurries but how uncomfortable it makes Bean.
>The question will be how the wide zone offense will approach this game. There’s no question that Aranda wants to make sure what they are doing so far is necessary and effective. It’s more of, we’re going to do what we do and get really good at it,’’ Aranda said. “And when things open up, we’re going to take advantage of it.”
There will be the calculated verticals like the 48-yard TD bomb from Gerry Bohanon to Tyquan Thornton last week and the occasional wide receiver jet sweep. But those were games where the Bears were in control.
>Kansas has not committed a turnover in its first two games. Baylor lives off of them and has scored a TD in each of the first two weeks. It comes down to Baylor’s discipline of doing the little things to create them vs. Kansas’ refusal to commit them.
Notable
Between 3rd and 4th down through the first two games, Baylor has converted 14 of 27 opportunities (52 percent).
Keys to the Game
>Avoid KU’s fury: New coaching staff. New hope. New belief that things can be better. While Leipold just started in the spring, there is a sense that this program finally found the right person to run the program and create a foundation. With enthusiasm like that, Kansas will want to start fast. Baylor is going to have to deal with first seven minutes of emotion where the Jayhawks will look for big plays in all three phases.
>Bean Counter: When Bean gets loose, it’s a problem for people. Even though Coastal Carolina pulled away in the second half and won 49-22, the Jayhawks closed to within 28-22 in the third quarter. Bean had two long touchdown runs. However, he has been sacked six times, so that means the Bears have to keep him in the pocket with potentially safeties J.T. Woods and Christian Morgan cheating up in run support should Bean break containment.
>Just like it’s Tuesday: Bohanon has to look at this game no different than it was the first two despite the fact the race for the Big 12 championship officially begins. Memorial Stadium isn’t the most hostile environment. In fact, there really is no environment. However, he just has to make sure that keeps sticking with fundamentals of running the offense like he has relying on Abram Smith and Trestan Ebner.
>Ahead of the chains: This Baylor offense really hasn’t been tested to a great extent when it’s behind the chains, such as a 2nd-and-12 or something like that. It may run into that a time or two or three Saturday. Then it becomes a matter of how BU OC Jeff Grimes wants to maneuver his team from these tough spots to get some of it back so later downs and distances won’t be as daunting.
Prediction
When I walked out of McLane Stadium last Saturday, I thought this game would be something like Baylor, 38-10. I still believe that could happen.
What concerns me the most is that Kansas is going to be the best team has faced to this point of the season. I say that knowing full well Kansas’ talent level is arguably one of the worst among P5 teams.
Ika’s presence notwithstanding, this is the time for Baylor to not “hold anything back” with its pass rush because a pass rush is either something that’s coming or is never coming. This game is going to be revealing to see where that part of the defense is.
Bean is a great athlete. He’ll make some plays. I think he’ll keep the Jayhawks in it. But this is where Baylor’s running game has to keep doing what it has been. Should the game be close, the attack has to take the energy out of the building and close it out.
Closer than people think. But Baylor’s talent and depth in the fourth quarter allows it to pull away.
Baylor 31, Kansas 20
