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BU Preview: Home Sweet Home...Finally

The Bears are looking to beat KSU for the third consecutive season.
The Bears are looking to beat KSU for the third consecutive season. (Baylor SID)

Kansas State (4-4, 4-3) at Baylor (1-5, 1-5)

Site: McLane Stadium, Waco

Time/Day: 6:00 p.m. Saturday

TV/Radio: ESPN2/ESPN Central Texas

Betting Line: Baylor -5½

Series: Kansas State leads, 9-8

Late Saturday night, somebody’s losing streak is going to end.

Baylor has lost five straight. Kansas State has lot its last three.

And for Baylor, the Bears are hoping it’s their to end what has been a pretty difficult past two months. Since winning Dave Aranda’s debut on Sept. 26 against Kansas, Baylor hasn’t won since.

It’s seen one game (Oklahoma State) re-scheduled, two other games lost on the final play and a fourth lost when the would-be tying touchdown pass turned into an interception. On top of that, the program lost its best defensive player in Terrel Bernard to a season-ending shoulder injury and its budding running back Craig Williams to a torn ACL and MCL.

Yet this isn’t the time to feel sorry for yourself because no one else will. There are games to be played and the opportunity to compete and win.

“I think it’s huge to get a win this week,’’ Baylor junior linebacker Abram Smith said. “But that comes within the practices, so we have to bring energy to the practices and bring it into the game. It will be a huge week to go out there and try to get a win.’’

Baylor also pretty much needs to become reacclimated with its home field. It hasn’t been since Halloween when it met TCU.


Here are some elements to look for

>The apparent return from injury between running back John Lovett, wide receiver Tyquan Thornton and tight end Ben Sims will something of note. Lovett and Thornton haven’t had very good seasons. However, their presence will give Kansas State’s defense something to respect. Before he missed the last two games against Iowa State and Texas Tech, Sims had become a favorite target of Baylor QB Charlie Brewer.

>Kansas State’s QB situation is up in the air. There’s a pretty good chance that both freshman Will Howard and junior Nick Ast will play. KSU head coach Chris Klieman understands that his offense needs a jolt. It’s averaging just 322 yards per game and is averaging nine points over the last three.

>Can he make it three in a row? Star safety Jalen Pitre has produced Pick 6’s in the last two games at Iowa State and Texas Tech. The chances would seem unlikely. But it does appear that Pitre is assuming the role of Bernard as the leader of this defense. And that’s something that probably wasn’t expected.

>Despite the frustrations that many have had with the offensive, it really hasn’t been the problem for the last three games. Brewer has had protection to make his reads and deliver the ball. If a quarterback is getting sacked a couple of times per game and hurried five times or less, that’s pretty normal. That’s what has been happening lately.


Notable

If Brewer can complete 60 percent or better over these last three games, he will pass Robert Griffin III with the most in Baylor history. Griffin has 60 games with that percentage. Brewer is sitting on 58.


Keys to the Game

>Finish, finish, finish – If Baylor has a lead going into the fourth quarter or just has it late, it must come up with that mental toughness or series of actions to close it out. The Bears have been right there in three of their five losses. A couple of plays have been the difference.

>Establish the run – Kansas State is 7th in the Big 12 in rushing defense 170.9 yards per game. Baylor is still last at 107 yards per game. However, a 200-yard performance at Texas Tech helped. With the running stable of Qualan Jones and Taye McWilliams mixed into what Josh Fleeks could add along with Lovett, there is an opportunity. Plus, KSU is dealing with some linebacker injuries.

>Force turnovers – Baylor leads the Big 12 in turnover ratio at +6. It has scored 52 points off the last eight it has collected. The Wildcats turned it over three times last week at Iowa State. Time to keep that streak going.

>No loose Deuce – KSU’s best playmaker is freshman running back Deuce Vaughn who is averaging 20 yards per reception and 4.4 per rushing attempt. He’s been corralled the last three games, held to a combined 106 rushing yards and 10 receiving yards. If Baylor can follow the formula West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Iowa State used, it limits what the Wildcats can do offensively.


Prediction

I’ve said over the last couple of weeks that I thought Baylor has a real chance to win this. I believe that even more. It would be nice to see this offense have a breakout performance, something it hasn’t done all season.

The way Kansas State is struggling really opens the door for the Bears to take advantage. The Bears will win this if they can find some consistency and Brewer doesn’t try to do too much. Their defense should have some success.

It will be close. However, I think the Bears will get this done.


Baylor 21, Kansas State 19

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