No. 21/24 Baylor (4-0, 2-0) at No. 19/18 Oklahoma State (4-0, 1-0)

Site: Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK

Time/Day: 6:00 p.m. Saturday

TV/Radio: ESPN2/ESPN Central Texas (Robert Griffin III, analyst)

Betting Line: Oklahoma State -4

Series: Oklahoma State leads, 21-18

Ugly wins leave shrapnel.

Now, what does that mean? The conventional wisdom is despite a win, there was a growing concern on both sides of the ball that the winning team got away with and may not be so fortunate again.

Well, football is week to week, so it’s hard to predict how a team will play because of the opponent because of how mentally it is ready to play as well as the location of the game. Most importantly, the talent on the opposing side will have a say.

No. 21/24 Baylor should make no apologies for grinding out a 31-29 victory over Iowa State. Obviously, the first half was about as good a half as there has been under Dave Aranda. The second half was two brilliant Trestan Ebner returns away from giving it all back.

So the issue confronting the Bears when they play a night game at Oklahoma State is will they deliver a showing akin the first half or second half of Iowa State.

It’s a fair question. But in this results industry, it’s about finding a way to win. The Cowboys won their last two games against Boise State and Kansas State without scoring in the second half.

Baylor’s history in Stillwater was pretty bleak up through the 2013 appearance. It had not won up there since 1936. Since then, Baylor has won twice in the last three trips and five of the last seven meetings.

“We anticipate it being loud, anticipate the tight quarters (on the sidelines),’’ Aranda said. “I think we’ve got to practice with some noise. You watch their film, and when they’re at home, they jump the silent counts of people. So, there are folks that will hand-clamp and all that to snap the ball. And their safeties are rushing from 10 yards back, timing it up. So, there is a home-field advantage there, so from the very start, we’ll start with that.”

Here are some elements to look for

>Baylor’s running game really wasn’t what you were used to watching from the previous three games. It was a balanced attack but neither Ebner nor Abram Smith were really the lead act for the approach. Oklahoma State’s defense only allows 2.5 yards per carry so it will be interesting to see if Baylor offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes will try to emphasize more or plan something similar to what he did with Iowa State.

>Which receiving corps is better Baylor’s passing was pretty much shut down in the second half to 18 yards. R.J. Sneed and Tyquan Thornton have been solid thus far. Oklahoma State has been dealing with injuries with its group but has a steady leader in senior Tay Martin.

>Baylor’s offensive line will again be under scrutiny. But the difference between Iowa State and Oklahoma State is that the Cowboys do have a knack to get after the quarterback. It has 13 sacks, one off the Big 12 lead behind Oklahoma, West Virginia and Kansas State. But the 96 yards in losses are the most.

>With likely no Terrel Bernard (knee) in the lineup for Saturday, Aranda said he would likely shift Matt Jones over Bernard’s spot and keep Ashton Logan at the Jack with Dillon Doyle in the middle. Even if Bernard could play, he likely would be limited in what he could contribute. Baylor’s depth at linebacker it robust.

Notable

This game features the top two scoring defenses in the Big 12. Baylor leads at 15.8. Oklahoma State is second at 16.0.

Keys to the Game

Repeat Iowa State – Fast starts do mean something to this team. They have scored on their opening offensive possession in each of their last three games. It could have been four had they not fumbled at Texas State. But this being the most difficult environment they are going to see all year, scoring would go a long way.

Trusting Gerry – Grimes let it go with starting QB Gerry Bohanon in the first half against the Cyclones (146 yards 2TD). Then when the pressure was tough in the second half, things became very conservative (18 yards). Bohanon will likely have to use his feet again like he did last week. But there are going to be moments in this game he’s going to be asked to make a play with his arm. We’re getting to the point of the season that no matter the situation, they’re going to have to do it.

Scatter shooting Sanders – Oklahoma State QB Spencer Sanders is a wild card. Heck, OSU head coach Mike Gundy called him his Tazmanian Devil. Sanders can be as good as he wants. But consistency is not his ally, especially with no points in the second half in each of the last two games. Baylor’s secondary may try to make things difficult for him with the way it disguises coverages. It also knows Sanders doesn’t have a very deep unit. The Cowboys are also just seventh in the Big 12 in total offense at 372 yards per game.

Shut the run – Oklahoma State only averages 144 rushing yards per game. While the Cowboys may have found their answer in Jaylen Warren (387 yards, 4 TDs), there’s not a balanced approach behind. If Baylor can make him ordinary it gives itself a great chance to force Sanders to beat it with his arm.

Prediction

This is a total coin flip game. But the Cowboys are pretty pedestrian on offense and have relied on their defense to carry the season. Baylor needs to clean up the penalty issues and the fumbles. A commitment to the run may be prove to be the difference and take some of the heat off Bohanon. If it can do that, then the Bears can win this game. And outside of Oklahoma State’s pass rush, the Bears line up with the Cowboys pretty well.

Baylor 23, Oklahoma State 20