Texas Tech (3-2, 1-1) at No. 23/22 Baylor (5-0, 2-0)
Site: McLane Stadium, Waco
Time/Day: 3:00 p.m. Saturday
TV/Radio: FS1/ESPN Central Texas
Betting Line: Baylor -11
Series: Tied, 38-38-1
The symmetry of Baylor meeting Texas Tech in 2018 and Saturday afternoon for Homecoming bring the same consequence but something else.
Matt Rhule’s program becomes bowl eligible for a second straight season with a second straight win over the Red Raiders. However, the Bears understand that this bowl eligibility is the first of a list of goals they want to accomplish. This dark horse is looking to continue to stay in the Big 12 championship game race.
“We try to really hard and let the tape define who we are,’’ Rhule said. “Losing we understand. The record says you are what you are. But the tape is going to show what kind of team we are.
“Just make sure our players realize that when you’re in the Big 12 and play Top 25 teams, you have to play really well. Any sort of accomplishment quickly goes away because you see how well Tech played [last Saturday against Oklahoma State]. My job is to stay focused on the process and the job at hand and make sure we do that.’’
The Bears are ranked for the first time in three years. They were No. 25 in the AP Poll in the Jim Grobe season of 2016. Of course, that was the season where 6-0 became 6-6.
This season has a different tenor to it because how this program is growing on both sides of the ball. Baylor leads the Big 12 sacks (18). It’s tied for second in turnover ratio (+4). The Bears have also committed the fewest turnovers in the conference (three).
Texas Tech is a yo-yo team that can look really bad one week (lost at Oklahoma, 55-16) and then turn around and beat a pretty solid team (Oklahoma State, 45-35 after jumping out to a 20-0 lead).
This is Texas Tech’s first visit to McLane Stadium after playing this series at AT&T Stadium in Arlington and the Cotton Bowl from 2010-2019.
Safety Chris Miller will sit for the first half after he was ejected in the fourth quarter for Targeting last week at Kansas State.
Here are several elements to look for…
>Texas Tech isn’t exceptional running the football. The Red Raiders average just 171 yards per game. Baylor’s rushing defense has been pretty solid in these first two games in league play. Through Iowa State and Kansas State, the Bears are yielding just 106.6 yards per game. But the Red Raiders have three backs – Armand Shayne, SaRodorick Thompson and Ta’Shawn Henry – each averaging at least 4.9 yards per carry.
>Pressure on the quarterback could be at the forefront. James Lynch’s three sacks last week set a Baylor single-game Big 12 record. The Bears are at 18 for the season after collecting just 25 in 2018. However, the Red Raiders are equally dangerous with 14. Senior linebacker Jordyn Brooks is one of the top sack artists on the Tech defense.
>As good as these defenses have been at getting to the QB, these offenses have done a good job protecting. Tech QBs have been sacked a league low (tied with Oklahoma) with four. Baylor QBs have been sacked only seven times (tied with Iowa State). It does help when there is dual-threat in Tech’s Jett Duffey and Baylor’s Charlie Brewer who can extend plays with his feet.
>Baylor senior middle linebacker Clay Johnston is third in the conference in tackles (48) and fifth in tackles for loss (6 ½). When he is active, that means the defensive line is doing its job and funneling things to him.
Notable
Baylor has allowed only 26 points through the first three quarters of the first five games.
Keys to the Game
>1,2,3,4 Pressure – The sack numbers are good for the Bears, obviously. But this might be a game where the effectiveness against the elusive Duffey could be defined by the number of QB hurries brought on him or plays where he just has to throw the ball away when no one is available. It’s cliché to say Baylor has to take one of his elements away from Duffey. But it’s true.
>Highway 188 – Last week we believed Baylor had to rush for 175 yards to beat Kansas State. Gross wise, the Bears did. But the Red Raiders are 8th in the conference in rushing defense allowing 187.6 yards per game. If Baylor can get to that number or close to it, the Bears should be fine.
>Protect the streak – Brewer is only one of three D1 quarterbacks who have thrown at least 11 touchdown passes without an interception (142 attempts). But against a ball hawkish secondary like Texas Tech has shown early, there’s going to be more of a challenge. Tech’s defense appears to be better than what it was under Kliff Kingsbury.
>Win first down – Baylor is very respectable at converting third down (48.6 percent) because a good portion of the time, those distances are manageable. Tech is the Big 12’s worst at 35.6 percent. The Red Raiders have struggled on that initial down to start possession. When that down falls flat it changes the tone of the possession.
Prediction
When you read the above, you saw where I said Tech can go from bad one week to great the next. The bad was on the road at Norman. The good was at home against Oklahoma State. However, the Red Raiders have failed on their first two road tests (they lost at Arizona) and the Bears have handled their business even when they have trailed.
Give credit to Duffey for turning in an impressive performance against the Cowboys. I just don’t believe he can deliver something as consistent on the road as he did last week.
The interesting matchup is how Baylor will defense Tech’s talented top receiver in T.J. Vasher. Tech has better skill player than Kansas State. However, Baylor’s defense is finding its swagger. And when a defense finds that, it becomes a weekly threat.
Baylor 28, Texas Tech 17
