Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl
Baylor (6-6, 4-5) vs Vanderbilt (6-6, 3-5)
Site: NRG Stadium, Houston
Time/Day: 8:00 p.m. Thursday
TV/Radio: ESPN, 1660 ESPN
Betting Line: Vanderbilt -4
Series: Baylor leads 2-0
The second season of the Matt Rhule era is tremendously better than his inaugural campaign (1-11). Baylor is back in a bowl game, after a one-year absence. With a victory the Bears will finish with a winning record.
Like Baylor, Vanderbilt will be looking to finish the season doing the same thing. The Commodores won their final two games of the regular season over Ole Miss 36-29 and rival Tennessee 38-13.
These two programs haven’t met since 1954, when Baylor defeated the Commodores 47-6 in the first night game ever played at Vanderbilt’s Dudley Field.
Coach Rhule and Vanderbilt head coach Derek Mason have some history of their own.
In 2014 when Rhule was at Temple, his Owls defeated Vanderbilt 37-7 in the season opener; ironically that game was the debut of Mason has the Commodores head coach.
The Bears are 2-2 all-time in bowl games played in Houston, and their last appearance in the Texas Bowl ended in a 38-14 loss to Illinois in 2010.
By the numbers, Baylor:
PPG: 28.25
Rushing: 159.5
Passing: 282.17
Total Offense: 441.7
Time of Possession: 32:27
By the numbers, Vanderbilt:
PPG: 31.17
Rushing: 174.8
Passing: 238.42
Total Offense: 413.3
Time of Possession: 27:32
Keys to the Game:
>Stop the Run- The Bears have struggled on the defensive end throughout the season, especially defending the run. Baylor ranks 9th in the Big 12 in rush defense, giving up 2,098 yards on the ground this season.
Vanderbilt is led by junior RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, who finished the regular season with 1,001 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns on 144 carries. Vaughn is the 6th ranked rusher in the SEC and he also averages 13.1 yards per reception.
>Next Man Up- Baylor will be without Jalen Hurd, who had surgery earlier this month on his knee. Hurd has been a key element to the offensive success and with him not available, it will be the perfect time for someone to step up.
Chris Platt and Denzel Mims will need to become dependable on a consistent basis during this game. The duo both average over 14-yards per catch, however they have a tendency to drop the ball in crucial moments.
>Establish the Run- Charlie Brewer has become a household name and the sophomore is only getting better. Brewer (2,635 yards, 17 touchdowns) can toss the ball across the yard, but he is just as dangerous on the ground and leads the with 6 rushing touchdowns.
No team really wants to rely on its quarterback to rush the ball. That’s why it’s important for John Lovett to get involved early and often.
Lovett played a key role in the final two regular season games, as he stepped in for injured RB JaMycal Hasty. Lovett is the Bears leading rusher, with 546 yards on 100 carries for 5 touchdowns.
Prediction:
When you look at the strength of schedule, Vanderbilt has the advantage. The Commodores faced #3 Notre Dame, #5 Georgia, #10 Florida, #14 Kentucky and #23 Missouri. Against these five ranked opponents Vanderbilt was 0-5.
Baylor faced some ranked opponents as well, #4 Oklahoma, #15 Texas, #16 West Virginia and #24 Iowa State and the. Against these four ranked opponents Baylor was 0-4.
The Bears do have the leisure of playing close to home but playing big games on the road is something Vanderbilt as become accustomed to this season.
Vanderbilt 35, Baylor 24
Prediction – Kevin Lonnquist
There are three elements in play for the Bears. First, is how Baylor’s other offensive players – Platt and Mims – respond with an apparent increased role. The Bears can’t replace Hurd. They’re just going to have to find a way to make adjustments.
Second, the performance of the offensive line follows. This is a group that surrendered the most sacks in the Big 12 (37), wasn’t great overall protecting Brewer and didn’t do much to help the running game ever establish itself. Would the second half against Texas Tech lend a clue that something is clicking?
Finally, football goes back to being able to run the ball and stop the run. Vaughn’s 6.95 ypc average tops the SEC. Baylor’s rushing defense allows 5.04 yards per carry. That’s last in the Big 12. The Bears defensive front has to make it a grind for Vaughn and then create some discomfort the veteran Shurmur.
Everything should point to the Commodores winning this. But perhaps the friendly confines of Texas will mean something. Baylor won all six of it games in the Lone Star State.
Baylor 27, Vanderbilt 23
