Kansas (5-2, 2-2) at Baylor (3-3, 1-2)

Site: McLane Stadium, Waco

Time/Day: 11:00 a.m. Saturday

TV/Radio: ESPN2/ESPN Central Texas

Betting Line: Baylor –10

Series: Baylor leads, 17-4

That sigh of relief expressed throughout Waco during the middle of the week was the collective Baylor community after it was learned starting quarterback Blake Shapen was preparing to play Saturday against Kansas.

On his Wednesday coaches radio show, head coach Dave Aranda said that Shapen had been with the team. Then the details emerged as Shapen had been practicing. Of course, there’s always going to be that anxiousness until Baylor’s offense goes on the field for the first time so everyone can be reassured.

But in a game like this against the upstart Jayhawks, Baylor needs its top signal caller because a season’s fortunes could be riding on this outcome.

The Bears have lost both of their October games and are looking to avoid their first three-game losing streak since 2020. They have surrendered 79 combined points in those setbacks. They are on the verge of falling out of the Big 12 championship race.

For the second half of this season, every game is a must win if the Bears are going to somehow be in this Dec. 3 conversation.

Yet looking ahead isn’t the best idea. It’s proper to just look ahead to the Jayhawks who aren’t playing like the Jayhawks of the past several years.

“I worry about being so outcome focused at the start of all of it,’’ Aranda said. “Because that is probably something I didn't have a handle on in the beginning and got us to where we're at in this place anyways. And so, to get back on what we have to do today, what we have to do this afternoon. What we have to do with this meeting, with this walkthrough, with this practice, is really where the focus needs to be.”

Baylor will not have running back Sqwirl Williams (concussion) available along with Taye McWilliams (concussion) who has been out since BYU. It’s unclear if offensive lineman Khalil Keith (knee) is ready to go.

Kansas QB Jalon Daniels (shoulder) is not expected to play. Jason Bean who came on in relief against TCU and played against Oklahoma starts.

Here are some things to look for

>With Shapen’s apparent return, it will only be answered when the game starts and flows as to what the staff wants to do with him. It may be business as usual. Perhaps it’s a bit scaled down to let the running game lead the way. If anything, it might be a case where there will be no QB designed runs or if there is no choice but to run, then don’t slide or get out of bounds pronto. However, there shouldn’t be any limits in the passing game. Shapen has thrown for more than 300 yards in the last two.

>The running game shouldn’t look a lot different. But no Sqwirl (concussion) means one less option. Richard Reese and Qualan Jones likely will get the bulk of the carries. Mix in a fly sweep to Monaray Baldwin and perhaps Jordan Jenkins earns a couple of carries if need be.

>Special teams play has been a problem from the last two games. And it’s coming from different forms between poor kickoff coverage to kicks getting blocked. When the opponent is scoring non-offensive points (16 in the last two games) and other mistakes are leading to other scores, those are areas that must be addressed.

>Baylor’s frustrations over the last two games is not because of penalties. The Bears have been good there for the last four games. Officials have thrown only 12 flags against them since BYU and just four between Oklahoma State and West Virginia.

Notable

The Bears are 49-43-4 all-time on homecoming and have won three consecutive and 10 of their last 11 homecoming matchups.

Keys to the Game

Football 101 – It comes down to this team simply doing a better job tackling from the defensive front to the secondary. Baylor had issues all night against West Virginia with yards after first contact. Attention to detail, reading a ball carrier/receiver’s hips rather than his eyes all come into play.

Rush, rush – The defensive line needs to have a reversal of fortune. The rushing yards per game jumped from 96 to 116 (Baylor is now third in the Big 12) from West Virginia. However, the lack of a pass rush has been the issue all season. Opposing QBs are too comfortable looking at all of their reads. Baylor is last in the Big 12 in sacks (10) and fifth in pass defense (233.2).

Don’t beat yourself – It really comes down to not allowing any non-offensive scores or big plays that set up short scoring drives, making sure the special teams play is a 180 of what it has been from the previous two games and taking care of the football. Baylor also has committed five turnovers in the last two games. That’s not complimentary football.

OL rebirth – Last week at West Virginia (35-169, 4.8 ypc) was a change for the better. Running backs had holes. The offensive line held its own facing a solid West Virginia front. Against a Kansas defense that ranks eighth in the league against the run (145.7), the Bears should have some success ripping off chunks here and there. It has every chance to look like the RVO that we saw in 2021.

Prediction

There’s likely to have been a lot of soul searching within the walls of this program to decide how it wants to approach the second half of the season. Preseason expectations have not been met. And while Baylor has lost two close games on the road at West Virginia and on the road at BYU, the issues have all contributed to being what the Bears are…3-3.

They should come out ready to play well in this. No one wants to lose Homecoming. This could be a high-scoring game because of how well Kansas moves it – even with Bean at QB – and how well Baylor can move it.

It’s going to come down to getting the right stops to turn momentum in Baylor’s favor.

Baylor 38, Kansas 27