Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

Baylor (6-6) vs Air Force (9-3)

Site: Amon G. Carter Stadium. Fort Worth

Time/Day: 6:30 p.m. Thursday

TV/Radio: ESPN/ESPN Central Texas

Betting Line: Baylor -3.5

Series: Baylor leads, 3-0

Playing the final game in a bowl game before Christmas in your archrival’s building is not what Baylor envisioned for the 2022 season.

In the summer, the Bears had the momentum following their 2021 Big 12 championship and No. 5 national ranking. They were predicted to repeat as conference champions and started the season ranked in the Top 10.

That’s why you play the games. Through inconsistency, some injuries and lack of development in other areas the 2022 Bears never fulfilled their expectations. Now, they’re hoping to top a feisty squad from the United States Air Force Academy to finish with a winning record.

However, the Bears and Falcons will be playing in the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl Thursday night as an arctic air mass blows into Fort Worth. By kickoff, the temperature will be about 19 degrees with winds from the North at 20 mph putting the wind chills into the single digits. It will be colder by the end of the game.

“It is the mindset going into it,’’ Baylor HC Dave Aranda said. “There have been games in all of our past with our players where you can’t feel your fingers anymore. You can’t say the words you want to say because your mouth doesn’t work anymore, and toes are cold. Meanwhile there is a great opposing force coming at you unrelenting. This is the who wants it most bowl. We have to fully attack that and put our best effort.”

This is Baylor’s first appearance in this bowl. Air Force is making its sixth appearance. Baylor is playing in a bowl for the 11th time in the last 13 seasons. These programs are facing each other for the first time since 1977.

The Bears will be without nose tackle Apu Ika and defensive back Mark Milton who have opted out of the game. And a few others may not be playing for various reasons.

Here are some elements to look for

>For starters, this is a game that once the players on both teams go through pregame warmups, they’re going to battle the thoughts of do they want to be there to play this game. The cold can weigh on anyone mentally and cause them to shut down. There are only so many blast furnaces, hand warmers and other elements to use in order to combat the bitter cold. You’ll note how that is in the way players run to plays and how they tackle.

>Baylor QB Blake Shapen is officially the only signal caller on this roster on scholarship. That became a fact when Kyron Drones signed with Virginia Tech on Wednesday. The last thing Baylor needs is for Shapen to suffer an injury that would keep him out for an extended period of time. The backup is seventh-year senior and walk on Luke Anthony.

>If this game is played straight up, it could be a fast-moving one. Air Force leads the nation in rushing at 330.9 yards per game. Baylor is pretty solid itself at 194.1 yards per game. Freshman Richard Reese, the Big 12 Freshman of the Year, needs 38 yards to reach 1,000 for the season. He’s currently at 962.

>Kicking and punting is going to be a challenge. That ball is going to feel like a rock. Couple that with the strong winds from the north and possible field goal attempts going into that direction may be short ones. Punters will have to line drive it in order to accumulate any distance. It will impact this contest.

Notable

Baylor will be meeting Air Force for the fourth time in history and the first time since a 38-7 win in 1977 in Waco. The teams have played two contests in Waco and once in Colorado Springs, with the Bears winning all three meetings by a combined score of 79-17. The series opened in 1961 with a Baylor 31-7 win in Waco.

Keys to the Game

Eye discipline – You hear that a lot from TV analysts about defenders. But when it comes to playing the triple option, it matters. It’s about following the ball and the QB’s hips. Whoever is assigned to spy on Falcons’ QB Haaziq Daniels better follow him inch by inch. The trigger man makes that offense go. Falcons FB Brad Roberts has rushed for better than 1,600 yards.

Shapen must break the trend – It’s been a nightmare for Baylor’s starting QB since Oklahoma State. He finished the regular season with 12 turnovers in the last eight games. That played a major role in the Baylor finishing .500 along with a three-game losing streak. While a QB must never doubt his confidence, perhaps he needed the three weeks for a mental break. He just needs to play better.

Turnovers – On a night like this one, securing the ball is going to be important. Hits are going to feel harder. Concentration will be challenged.

First down – This is probably the most important down for the Baylor defense. The magic number is four. If the Bears can hold the Air Force option to less than four yards on that down, it’s almost like putting the Falcons behind the chains with a 2nd-and-7 or worse. If the Falcons are accumulating at least four, it puts the Bears on their heels.

Prediction

This goes back to the weather in a bowl that for all practical purposes has no significance to it. If the Bears win, they get a trophy and finish with a winning record. That should matter. This team has shown under Aranda that it has had the resilience to bounce back and play hard and put the previous game’s performance behind them. The Bears have to get a two-score lead and force this offense, which is not good at coming from behind, to try and rally. And that’s going to be a challenge as the Falcons have the nation’s top defense (256.3 ypg). Does Baylor really want to be there? We’ll find out. Frankly, I don’t have a good feeling about this one.

Air Force 28, Baylor 17