West Virginia (2-3, 0-2) at Baylor (4-1, 2-1)

Site: McLane Stadium, Waco

Time/Day: 11:00 a.m. Saturday

TV/Radio: FS1/ESPN Central Texas

Betting Line: Baylor -2 1/2

Series: West Virginia leads, 6-3

The sour filled finish to Baylor’s 24-14 loss at Oklahoma State this past Saturday is not easy to ignore. Bad penalties, questionable play calls and organizational issues left many of the faithful to wonder if everything was really going as well as it should have been.

Baylor head coach Dave Aranda was up front about all of these issues when he met with the media on Monday. To his credit, he and his staff owned it.

“So, we were able to be in a pressure situation, really for the first time, in an away environment like that,’’ Aranda said. “So, very instructive, very difficult to look at. But, a lot of opportunity to get better, so that is completely the idea here.”

It probably was uglier on film than it was when it was happening live. This is a time where Aranda and his team have to take the next step and become much sharper than what occurs on the field because what happens on the sidelines and in the coaching box definitely has an impact of what happens on the field.

The good thing is that they recognized it and used this week in preparing for West Virginia in what could be considered a “mark the time” type of moment for Aranda and his tenure on The Brazos.

Every coach will suggest that every game played is the biggest game of the year. To an extent they’re right. But this game against the beleaguered Mountaineers is transitional because for the first time, Baylor is facing some real adversity in 2021. The Bears didn’t play well. The offense needs to have a lot of things work in its favor to be efficient. For the first time, this team trailed by two scores in a game and never could catch up.

However, they catch a West Virginia team that possibly doesn’t know what to think of itself. The Mountaineers could easily be 2-0 in Big 12 play. But they didn’t finish at Oklahoma and home to Texas Tech and lost on field goals in the closing seconds. That can take some of the will to win out of a team. Or it could lead them to rally themselves for one last effort to avoid a 0-3 start. This game carries as much weight for the Mountaineers because they want to at least become a bowl eligible team.

“It's a game of random events, a game of setbacks,’’ Aranda said. “ How do we respond to it? It's something we talk about a fair amount, and I think it's one thing to nod your head and kind of understand it.’’

Here are some key elements to look for

>If everything went well this week, the Bears were hoping to get linebacker Terrel Bernard (knee) and defensive back Kalon Barnes (leg) back in the lineup. If they’re available, it really comes down to how much they can play and if the coaching staff will limit them unless each shows he can handle a full game’s work.

>West Virginia likes to use a quarterback rotation between Jarret Doege and Garrett Greene. They are two different style players. Doege is the passer. Greene is the runner. It would seem that Mountaineers’ head coach Neal Brown could be predictable in the way he uses them. The offense hasn’t been anything special with just 33 points in the first two league games.

>The Mountaineers’ rush defense is one of the best in the conference allowing 88 yards per game and just 2.5 yards per carry. In two league games, that average is less at 68.5 as Oklahoma rushed for only 57 yards and Texas Tech managed 80. The Bears want to run the football. What Aranda and offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes have to decide is do they want to commit to it?

>The turnover ratio for both teams is striking. Baylor is the best in the Big 12 at +5. West Virginia is the worst at -5. The Bears blew two chances with interceptions inside the Oklahoma state 40 last week. If the Mountaineers continue their trend, the Bears have to find a way to capitalize.

Notable

West Virginia leads the conference in sacks with 17, while Baylor is tied for the lead league in fewest sacks allowed with six.

Keys to the Game

>Still(s) of the night: The Mountaineers have two of the better defensive linemen in the conference between Dante Stills and Taijh Alston. Each has four sacks. The Bears offensive line had some issues against solid defensive fronts in Iowa State and Oklahoma State. Do they draw up double teams against them? Is the staff OK handling Stills and Alston one on one? That strategy will go a long way on what Baylor wants to do with the running game.

>Commit: Obviously, the Baylor offensive play approach has been evenly split between the ground and the air. However, the Bears have gone away from what they want to do in running the football. They have to make a concerted effort to show the Mountaineers that they will do it even if the results are sometimes poor. This staff can’t flinch despite 230 total rushing yards through the last two games against the Cyclones and Cowboys.

>Laundry bag: Baylor has the distinction of being the most penalized team in the conference at 66.8 yards per game. The Bears have also drawn the most flags with 38. For a team that has very little margin for error to be successful, it cannot be its own worst enemy. This team has to be more disciplined. It’s conference play. No excuses.

>Make a play: This has been mentioned previously. However, QB Gerry Bohanon is going to be asked to make a play to win a game or put one away sometime this season. It’s going to come down to him. It didn’t work out in Stillwater. Should this game be a one score situation in the fourth quarter, the complaints about the coaching staff can be shelved because sooner or later Bohanon must do it.

Prediction

This should be tight from the opening kickoff. If the narrative plays out, it would be stunning if either team has more than a 10-point lead at any point. I’m going to lean toward Baylor on this because I think they feel the sense of urgency and practiced this way during the week. Even if Bernard and Barnes don’t play, the defense is deep enough to keep the Bears in it. West Virginia gives the ball away enough to where the Bears can capitalize. The better capitalize. It won’t be a Rise of the Phoenix performance. That’s just not what Baylor is. However, I expect a much more crisp performance. Baylor finds a way to hang on at the end.

Baylor 21, West Virginia 17