No. 11 Baylor (8-2, 5-2) at Kansas State (7-3, 4-3)
Site: Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, KS
Time/Day: 4:30 p.m., Saturday
TV/Radio: FS1/ESPN Central Texas
Betting Line: Kansas State -1
Series: Tied, 9-9
Coaches will pounce on the idea that their teams can control only what they control. It makes sense because having to rely on someone else to do your dirty work is unreliable.
No. 11 Baylor goes into Saturday’s road finale at Kansas State running third in a conference where only the top two teams can advance to the Big 12 championship game on Dec. 4 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington.
The Bears know they have to win to sustain their hopes. A loss pretty much ends it. In fact, a serious dose of reality is that if the Bears lose to Kansas State and Oklahoma beats Iowa State and Oklahoma State wins at Texas Tech, the race is over.
But a Bears win at least keeps the pressure on both the Cowboys and Sooners. When the Bears kick off late Saturday afternoon, they will know where Oklahoma stands. The Sooners play at 11:00 a.m. They won’t know about Oklahoma State as the Cowboys kick off in Lubbock at 7:00 p.m.
The million dollar question for this team is if can it translate the way it plays the game at home to playing on the road. The Bears are 2-2 with wins at Texas State to open the season and then at Kansas to open the league season.
Their last two road games in Stillwater, OK and Fort Worth have revealed a team that doesn’t look comfortable, makes too many mistakes and at times appears as if the crowd gets to it. The execution has been iffy.
Welcome to life in conference play where playing on the road is and should be hard. That’s why Iowa State, West Virginia, BYU, Texas and Oklahoma walked out of McLane Stadium with losses. However, given the urgency of this game, the Bears have to tune out those factors and just play.
Well, they are playing a team in the Wildcats who are arguably the hottest in the conference. They have a league-best four-game winning streak.
“Obviously, I think it’s college football,’’ grad transfer guard Grant Miller said. “Fans are going to be pretty juiced up and stuff. And that can make it hard for opposing offenses. But, I’d really just say the main thing for us is just being more locked-in in the few weeks that we had.
“We knew that we really more beat ourselves than really got beat the two games we lost. So, I think for us, it’s just about finetuning what we can get better at and focus in on those things.”
Here are some key elements to look for
>How Baylor handles the high of the impressive 27-14 win against Oklahoma is important. They likely got a lot of atta boys for what they did. Those are nice. But their focus for this one should be noticeable early.
>The emotions for Kansas State’s senior day can always be tricky to assess. It’s that “win one for the seniors” mentality for 31 seniors who will be recognized. The Wildcats will either handle it fine or they could be swept up in it. However, head coach Chris Klieman does a good job with his team.
>Kansas State defensive end DE Felix Anudike-Uzomah (30 solo tackles, 11 sacks, 7 FF) is having an all-conference year. He’s likely going to draw a double team consistently with a tackle and a tight end chipping at him.
>Baylor QB Gerry Bohanon won last week’s game against the Sooners with his feet. But he’s not throwing it well lately. His rushing performance overshadowed a poor throwing performance where he was just 12-21-1 for 117 yards with a TD. He’s thrown five interceptions in his last three games.
Notable
This is a streaky series. Kansas State won the first five meetings. Baylor has won four straight and currently is on a 3-game winning streak against the Wildcats.
Keys to the Game
>Fast Start – The Bears have to begin quickly at least by keeping things even or a one-score difference one way or another through the first 10 minutes of the opening period.
>No loose Deuce – KSU running back Deuce Vaughn (987 rushing yards) should go over 1,000 for the season. But he’s the second best receiver on this team with 427 yards. Baylor has to limit his impact on this game. Maybe the Bears can get away with him running for 60 yards but nothing more.
>D-Line/LBs stand tall – The defensive front has taken its share of criticism over the season. However, it has done a great job taking the running game away from the opposition. Texas, TCU and Oklahoma really didn’t much on the ground and became one-dimensional. That must repeat.
>Fourth quarter finale – The Bears have shown at McLane Stadium the final quarter is their quarter. They’ve been most impressive there. But if it’s tight, the characteristic must repeat itself. If they have the lead, they must bring the killer instinct with them away from the Brazos.
Prediction
I have a lot of respect for what Klieman has done at KSU. He knows how to win. Witness his four national championships at FCS power North Dakota State. Dave Aranda has become an impressive coach to watch. He’s more confident in running a game. His field goal at the end against Oklahoma proves that. I think this is going to be a physical grudge match. It’s the kind that Baylor RB Abram Smith enjoys. This game will be about the Baylor offensive line going against the Kansas State defensive line. I think Baylor scores inside the final five minutes with a long drive and gets a stop at the end to keep itself in the Big 12 title chase.
Baylor 23, Kansas State 20
