No. 9 Oklahoma State (3-0) at No. 16 Baylor (3-1, 1-0)

Site: McLane Stadium, Waco

Time/Day: 2:30 p.m., Saturday

TV/Radio: FOX/ESPN Central Texas

Betting Line: Baylor -2½

Series: Oklahoma State leads, 22-19

There’s something a sequel that always brings out the energy of the two teams that sparred in the original.

Well, when it comes to Baylor vs. Oklahoma State, it’s actually a threequel. While Baylor lost to Oklahoma State 24-14 Oct. 2 in Stillwater, OK, the Bears had cut the margin to 17-14 before the Cowboys had to hang on.

And there was The Stop. Or around these Central Texas parts, it’s simply known as The McPlay. Jairon McVea denied Oklahoma State’s Dezmond Jackson inches from what could have been the game-winning touchdown. Baylor preserved the heart stopping 21-16 Big 12 championship victory.

That was then. This is now. The teams are different. Important players from each team have moved on to the professional ranks or professional world. Those who have stayed behind realize what that game at AT&T Stadium was. But it’s a new chase for the Big 12 championship.

The Bears have played twice on the road in difficult environments – BYU and Iowa State – and split. Oklahoma State is playing its first road game. The Cowboys had a bye last week.

Both are considered contenders in what should be wide open race for the conference crown.

“You have to beat them,’’ Baylor head coach Dave Aranda said. “I think their team speed really flashes on the tape. I think up to this point we’ve been probably looked at as the fastest team of whoever we’ve played. That’s probably not the case in this one. I think they’re kind of transitioning too into new guys and everything else, a road game for them and that. Their ability to play fast and violent is really what makes this a real competitive game.”

Here are some things to look for

>Both teams are getting key members of their trenches back or rounding them into shape. Right guard Grant Miller is cleared to return after missing last week at Iowa State. Oklahoma State defensive end Trace Ford, who missed all of 2021 with a torn ACL, has slowly been working his way back into the fold. He blocked and returned a punt 15 yards for a touchdown two weeks against UAPB.

>Speaking of the offensive line, this is going to be another litmus test for this group. When it comes to playing against P5 teams (BYU counts), this group has struggled to run the football with non-sack average yards per carry totals of 3.6 and 3.7 against the Cougars and Iowa State. If this group can somehow move the Cowboys front to the point where 4.0 is a thing, then it will be a good day.

>Oklahoma State QB Spencer Sanders and head coach Mike Gundy understand the seven interceptions Sanders threw in the two meetings against the Bears last year were last year. Gundy has said that they can live with some of the risks that Sanders takes. But the question is how will he respond against an inexperienced Baylor secondary or is this a case where Baylor simply has his number?

>While there is understandable concern about Taye McWilliams (head injury) and how much time he can miss, Baylor has seen the emergence of true freshman running back Richard Reese. He’s tied for the lead among all freshman in touchdowns scored (six) and is sixth in rushing yards by freshmen (315).

Notable

Under Aranda, Baylor is 8-0 when is scores on the first possession of the game. The Bears have done that in their first three wins of 2022.

Keys to the Game

Fast Start – Baylor started quickly in Ames last week and it’s a pretty good idea if they do that again Saturday afternoon. Oklahoma State hasn’t dealt with much adversity so far this year. If the Bears strike first, it would be interesting to see how the Cowboys respond to it.

8.0 or better please – The average yards per passing attempt at Iowa State was 9.2. That’s exactly why Baylor won that conference opener last week. They were willing to stretch the field, push the issue and get the Cyclone defense to play on its heels. For a defense that has a new defensive coordinator in former Vanderbilt HC Derek Mason, it could be a chess match between Baylor OC Jeff Grimes and Mason.

Protect Shapen – Baylor’s offensive line has allowed eight sacks and nine QB hurries through the first four games. That’s not great. Oklahoma State’s defense has recorded 10 sacks so far. That’s a little daunting. The protection for Shapen has to be much more crisp. Miller coming back helps. Anything more than two sacks could be trouble in this game.

Forget McVea – As much as we all will dwell on the excitement of what happened last December at AT&T Stadium, it has nothing to do with this year. The returning Bears have to act like that game was 100 years ago. The one thing that Aranda coached teams have done successfully in the last year plus is to play to the moment. That needs to happen probably more than ever in this one.

Prediction

What I’m curious about is how Sanders the most scrutinized person in this game responds. If Baylor is in his head before kickoff, the Bears win this. If he has learned to put that behind him and move on, then we will be treated to a great game. It comes down to what he does against Baylor’s young secondary. Sanders has a pretty experienced group to throw to in Brennan Presley and Braydon Johnson. It’s no secret Baylor’s secondary has had its share of issues. Baylor’s running game has to be the second defense by running consistently and churning out time consuming drives. Turnovers are always something to look for. Not sure how they will do, but I think the Bears will have enough to survive and run the home winning streak to 10.

Baylor 26, Oklahoma State 21