Baylor (1-4, 1-4) at Texas Tech (2-5, 1-5)

Site: Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock

Time/Day: 3:00 p.m. Saturday

TV/Radio: FS1/ESPN Central Texas

Betting Line: Baylor -1

Series: Baylor leads, 39-38-1

There are known no plans for a sequel to the 1996 romantic comedy movie, The Mirror has Two Faces.

But if there was, the sequel could be played out on the South Plains of West Texas when Baylor visits Lubbock for the first time since 2008. The Bears and Red Raiders are experiencing similar seasons. Both are struggling offensively. Both have had issues with the kicking game. Both are sitting at the bottom of the Big 12 standings.

The difference is that Baylor’s head coach Dave Aranda is largely getting some grace for a season that has never looked the same as others. The COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted three games and caused the program lose spring practice.

Texas Tech head coach Matt Wells may not be in a similar position. He had a year to establish his footprint. It doesn’t appear to be taking with a defense that is last in the Big 12 and an offense that doesn’t look anything like it was in the days under Kliff Kingsbury and Mike Leach. Frustration is building in the 806.

Nothing is on the line for these two teams except to keep faint bowl hopes alive and just to feel better about itself with a win. Even that’s a stretch. The only novelty is that Baylor is in a place for the first time in 12 years.

“I think with a lot of guys being from under Coach Rhule,’’ junior Star Linebacker Ashton Logan said, “and dealing with this before is really helping some of the younger guys be able to stay positive, stay on course, stay working, and not letting this drag them down or have any doubts about the next year, the next week, anything of that. I think everybody is pushing to get better every day.”

Here are some elements to look for

>The Baylor running game is going to look a lot different with the loss of Sqwirl Williams (torn ACL, MCL left knee) for the remainder of the season. It’s unclear to what extent senior John Lovett (possible concussion) can contribute or if he will play at all. The running game, which is last in the Big 12 at 88 yards per game, likely will rely on young faces in Qualan Jones and Taye McWilliams.

>Now, the WLB spot belongs to junior Abram Smith who replaces the heart and soul of this defense in Terrel Bernard, who is gone for the season with a left shoulder injury. Aranda said that Smith has already been working to prepare himself to be in this position. He did that for a little bit last week at Iowa State. Now, the floor is his.

>Watch if Baylor’s defense can create turnovers. The Bears are +5 in the turnover ratio this year and have scored 38 points off the last five takeaways going back to the Texas game on Oct. 24.

>Texas Tech’s QB situation appears to be in rotation mode between Utah State grad transfer Henry Colombi and Alan Bowman. For sure, Tech’s passing game isn’t the vaunted attack it was in previous years. Reports out of Lubbock signal that both Colombi and Bowman will play. Of course, that might be a flow-of-the game type of thing depending on who is playing well.

Notable

Baylor has not lost a fumble this year nor has it even coughed one up. That’s pretty impressive given that the season is beyond the halfway point.

Keys to the Game

>Charlie in the Box – He’s taken a lot of grief this year for what he isn’t compared to what he had been in 2018 and 2019. And he got his beat up about the interception at the end of the Iowa State game. But senior QB Charlie Brewer has started to play better for the last six quarters against TCU and Iowa State. If he and OC Larry Fedora can actually have a meeting of the minds and if the offensive line can continue to play well from ISU....

>Running silent – At this point, no one knows what to expect out of this part of the offense. With no Sqwirl, there shouldn’t be any expectations on Lovett. Jones and McWilliams have got to be a legitimate part of the plan to give Brewer some balance. Heck, Brewer may call his own number a few times. The bottom line is that Baylor’s running game has to be a factor.

>Isn’t that special – Both teams had poor special team’s performances in their losses to TCU and Iowa State respectively. Baylor had a punt blocked that led to a score. It also surrendered a long kickoff return that led to a score. Those areas have to be tightened. This team doesn’t have much margin for error. It needs to be sound in this part of the game.

>Fluster Colombi/Bowman – If Tech head coach Matt Wells is truly going to be switching QBs in the game, then Baylor needs to identify the difference. Colombi moves better and can make plays with his feet. Bowman does not. It wouldn’t be surprising if the Bears will blitz the heck out of both – moreso Bowman – to see how each responds. There really isn’t a downfield threat except for sophomore WR Erik Ezukanma (35-490, 4TD, 14 ypc). Baylor’s corners in senior Raleigh Texada and junior Kalon Barnes have had pretty solid seasons.

Prediction

Texas Tech is really sputtering. I believe the blown lead against Texas really took something out of this group. It hasn’t been the same since. Surprisingly, there just hasn’t been any quality play from the QB position. I really want to pick Baylor here because the Bears have the better defense. And despite his flaws, I think Brewer is the better QB. What I can’t trust is the running game. I don’t know what I’m going to see from this part of the offense. To be honest, we haven’t seen anything from it all year. The only reason I’ll go with the Red Raiders in a close game is that it’s in Lubbock. If it was in Waco, I would pick Baylor.

Texas Tech 22, Baylor 19