BU Preview: Baylor looks to end streaks vs. Texas, clinch Big 12 title spot
Texas (6-4, 4-3) at No. 14 Baylor (9-1, 6-1)
Site: McLane Stadium, Waco
Time/Day: 2:30 p.m. Saturday
TV/Radio: FS1/ESPN Central Texas
Betting Line: Baylor -5 1/2
Series: Texas leads, 78-26-4
Blasphemous as it may be to see in front of your eyes, Texas coach Tom Herman was right.
Baylor and Texas have had eerily similar seasons. But the difference is that Baylor has been finding ways to win. Texas hasn’t.
The Bears have been involved in six games decided in single digits. They have won five of them.
The Longhorns have also been involved in six games decided in single digits. They have split them at 3-3.
Yes, the margin between victory and defeat is that close. It’s about having people in the right place to make plays at the right time. There are years where it can go your way and years where it doesn’t.
The Bears are also trying to put the devastating 34-31 loss to Oklahoma in the rear view mirror. They close out the 2019 home schedule Saturday with Senior Day against the Longhorns at McLane Stadium.
Baylor would like to summon the karma for at another week – if necessary – against its rivals from Austin as these two meet for 109th time. The Bears are trying to clinch a spot in the Big 12 championship game Dec. 7 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington. They can do it either Saturday or in the regular season finale Nov. 30 at Kansas.
Texas is hanging on to life support and must beat Baylor to just maintain those hopes. If Texas wins Saturday, it would have to beat Texas Tech in the finale on Friday and then hope Kansas upsets Baylor.
There are other subplots working for the Bears:
>They want to stop a 4-game losing streak to the Longhorns.
>They want to break a 3-game losing streak on Senior Day.
>They want to beat Texas at home for the first time since 2013. They’ve lost both meetings to Texas at McLane Stadium.
>Baylor head coach Matt Rhule has never beaten Herman in three meetings when the two were at Temple and Houston and now at Baylor and Texas.
Those are a lot of boxes to check.
“I know they’re excited and so I don’t have to talk much about the other things,’’ Rhule said. “It’s really just about the chance to go out and play football again and even though we were disappointed by that it was a great, great, great atmosphere, it was a great chance to play big time, big time college football with the whole world watching and we have another chance to do that this Saturday.’’
Here are some elements to look for…
>The Bears will finally get to see Texas junior QB Sam Ehlinger for a game. Maybe. They didn’t see him in the 2017 meeting as he was hurt. Shane Buechele played. Ehlinger had the opening possession of the 2018 meeting in Austin, was hurt on that series and didn’t return. Buechele finished the game. So all Baylor really has on him is film from games against other opponents and nothing else.
>Texas’ erratic defense – especially the pass defense (305 ypg) – is getting healthier and key players like S/LB DeMarvion Overshown and safety Caden Sterns are returning to the lineup. Baylor’s offense has been up and down in each of the last two games. It didn’t score in the first half at TCU. It didn’t score in the second half against Oklahoma.
>Baylor’s defense could look the same or different. MLB Terrel Bernard suffered a broken right hand and moved to the outside. Jordan Williams moved to the insider. There is some logic in that because the MLB has to be a real sure tackler. He can’t be with only one good hand. There’s also going to have to be some adjustments Baylor’s front has to make in order to help junior DE James Lynch find rush lanes. He hasn’t had a sack in the last four games.
>Both teams' running games has been trending downward for the last several weeks and need to find a way to become established. They’re in the middle of the pack in the Big 12. Baylor is fifth at 180.7. Texas is sixth at 161.1. Neither has a back that’s going get near the 1,000-yard mark. Texas’ Keaontay Ingram is at 642 yards. Baylor’s top rusher is John Lovett is at 537.
Notable I
Denzel Mims is the only FBS player with at least eight receiving touchdowns in each of the last three seasons.
Notable II
The 2019 defense’s Big 12-leading 33 sacks is tied for fourth all time on Baylor list. The 1986 and 2014 teams each had 37. The 1992 group is No. 1 with 40.
Keys to the Game
>Bam Sam – It’s clear that Ehlinger hasn’t been himself since the 4-interception performance at TCU three weeks ago. Baylor’s defense has been pretty good ball hawkers with 11 INTs. Grayland Arnold has three in his last two games. One of Ehlinger’s go-to targets in Collin Johnson isn’t expected to play. So that leaves one-time Baylor signee Devin Duvernay as the main target.
>Hold the Line – While that is the title to a song from the group Toto, Baylor’s offensive line just has to play better because its ineffectiveness is causing the running game to sputter. It also hasn’t protected Brewer very well. He’s been sacked 14 times in the last three weeks.
>First down matters – Baylor’s ability to get good gains on first down is going to be important against the aggressive style that Texas defensive coordinator Todd Orlando likes to play. But positive starts present more manageable third downs. Conversely, Baylor needs to put Texas in long third down situation must start its attack on the opening play. Texas converting 50.7 on 3rd down. Remember Oklahoma was 12-18 on third down last week.
>Opportunity matters – The Bears were really good at making Oklahoma pay for its mistakes. They scored touchdowns on two of OU QB Jalen Hurts three turnovers. If those opportunities come from turnovers or big returns, the Bears need to score touchdowns. Field goals are OK. But there’s something psychological about getting six for both sidelines.
Prediction
Texas is going to be the second most talented team Baylor will face in 2019. Texas’ biggest problem is that it’s an inconsistent group and can’t string four quarters much two games together. Baylor must make plays in the passing game. Watch Mims in warmups to see if he’s OK to play with his foot issue. Rhule said he expects him to play. But the question is going to be if he will be 100 percent or how does he adjust. Plus, it’s still important to see how well Baylor has put Oklahoma behind it by how it starts. Texas will always get the attention. That helps a lot. If it was Kansas State, then I’d be more concerned. This matchup is about how well Brewer can take advantage of Texas’ pass defense or how much he can adjust since it may be a different look. Like every other Big 12 game Baylor has played at McLane, this one should be no different – tight - and probably go deep in the fourth quarter. It’s going to be a tough game. Texas can win this. Baylor is the better team.
Baylor 24, Texas 19