Texas Tech (6-5, 3-5) at No. 8 Baylor (9-2, 6-2)

Site: McLane Stadium, Waco

Time/Day: 11:00 a.m., Saturday

TV/Radio: FS1/ESPN Central Texas

Betting Line: Baylor -14 1/2

Series: Tied, 39-39-1

Baylor’s Saturday is pretty simple. Beat Texas Tech in the afternoon and hope that Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma at night and the Bears are headed to next Saturday’s Big 12 title game at AT&T Stadium.

A loss to the Red Raiders or an Oklahoma win means the Bears will prepare for their bowl game and wait for another conference title chance in 2022.

“But from our end, there’s parts of that that we don’t control,’’ Baylor head coach Dave Aranda said. “I know what we do control is our effort, our focus and mindset on Saturday morning. For us to take the next step is to come out Saturday and be at our best, not an eye toward what’s happening later in the day, not an eye looking back to Thursday dinner with the family was great, but to be totally in the present and totally connected and playing our best football.”

The status of starting quarterback Gerry Bohanon is in doubt with the right hamstring injury he suffered last week at Kansas State. If he can’t play, then it’s up to redshirt freshman Blake Shapen to take control of the offense.

Baylor also welcomes back former coach Joey McGuire who was named the Red Raiders head coach on Nov. 8. The Red Raiders, who are bowl eligible, are still coached by Sonny Cumbie on an interim basis. Cumbie will return as offensive coordinator in 2022.

This is also Senior Day for the No. 8 Bears who are also trying for a 10-win season.

Notable

Baylor’s O-Line has allowed 11 sacks, tied for 8th-fewest nationally (4th in Power-5).

Keys to the Game

>Be Physical – The Bears did enough in the running game last week to win at Kansas State. But they did it when Abram Smith was limited to just 46 yards. He needs to return to the role Baylor if the Bears are going to impose their will. Baylor is fifth nationally in rushing at 231.7 yards per game.

>Turnover trends – Baylor has forced a turnover in 19 consecutive games and is +5 five in the turnover ratio. Texas Tech is -6. The Bears defense must create issues for young QB starter Donovan Smith. The Baylor pass rush is getting better.

>Going in 3rds – Baylor is converting on that pivotal down at 41 percent. Opponents have been successful on just 32 percent.

>Strong to the finish – The Bears play as the stronger team when it reaches the final period. They just play with aura of confidence.

Prediction

Tech is going to have trouble moving the ball against the Bears defense. They practically couldn’t move it at all last week against Oklahoma State and were shut out for the first time in 24 years. And Baylor’s defense is probably 1A to OSU’s 1. Should Shapen get the start and play the whole way, he could be given a game plan similar to what he saw last week at Kansas State. The only difference is that he has to finish drives with touchdowns not field goals.

Baylor 27, Texas Tech 13