Baylor (4-3, 2-2) at Texas Tech (4-3, 2-2)

Site: AT&T Jones Stadium, Lubbock

Time/Day: 6:30 p.m. Saturday

TV/Radio: ESPN2/ESPN Central Texas

Betting Line: Texas Tech -2

Series: Baylor leads, 40-39-1

There are several ways to look at Baylor’s game at Texas Tech.

>First, the Bears need this win to stay relevant in the Big 12 title game chase.

>Second, they’d like to end a drought of not winning in Lubbock for what is going on two generations.

>Third, they just need to put together a complete game which really hasn’t occurred all season.

>Fourth, they’re going to have to do this when Tech when has called for a blackout. It’s honoring Patrick Mahomes by inducting him in to its Ring of Honor.

Whatever the motivation is, the Bears know what they are facing. Winning on the road is never easy. Baylor is 1-2 away from McLane Stadium thus far with trips to Norman, OK and Austin to finish the campaign.

The interesting part of this season is that Baylor has held a lead in all seven games. Of course, the lead against Oklahoma State was brief at 3-0. But in the other six, the Bears had the lead in the fourth quarter. They finished four. They didn’t finish the other two – on the road at BYU and on the road at West Virginia.

“I think for us it’s going be starting fast, and when we do start fast, not having a third quarter, so to speak,’’ Baylor head coach Dave Aranda said. “So we continue to pound the rock and continue to work on the things that are right in front of us, so we’re in a position to finish strong. I think that complete game has been way elusive to us, and I think that’s probably going to be the most difficult thing of all.”

Not to bury the lead, but it has been exhausted this week about Baylor facing former Associate Head Coach Joey McGuire who accepted the Tech job last November.

Emotions and football always go together. That’s how this game lives. What will be key for Baylor players facing their former mentor and how Red Raider players handle it for wanting to do well for McGuire is how they control those.

“I want them to win, I want them to have success, just not versus us,’’ Aranda said. “I want them to be successful, I know the type of people they are, and what it means to all of them and everything.”

Baylor’s injury situation is the following. Wide receiver Monaray Baldwin (Ben Sims rolled into his leg on the sideline) and running back Sqwirl Williams (concussion) status will not be officially known until gametime. However, it does appear Sqwirl didn’t have any setbacks.

Running back Taye McWilliams (concussion) is out and his return at any point this year is unknown.

Here are some key things to look for

>As always, it will be a rowdy, energized night crowd at Jones Stadium. That’s just the way it is out in Lubbock. It’s tough enough to play the Red Raiders out there. Night games can be a different animal for whatever reason. Tortillas notwithstanding, it’s going to be a matter of how Baylor can separate that atmosphere and just play the game straight up.

>While McGuire has said that he could play three quarterbacks in this game between freshman Behren Morton, Donovan Smith and Tyler Shough, he also said that last week prior to West Virginia. Well, Morton played most of the game. Smith played some. Shough never saw the field. What happened against the Mountaineers could be the same Saturday.

>Baylor’s pass rush has been arguably the greatest disappointment of the season. The Bears are tied for last in the Big 12 in sacks with 11. It’s causing issues for a secondary that has been picked on quite a bit. What Aranda and defensive coordinator Ron Roberts must determine is how much do they want to blitz to shake things. There’s risk, of course. But what’s been happening so far hasn’t offered much.

>The unusual is a part of offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes way of doing business. He’s used Sims on goal line runs, linebacker Dillon Doyle on goal line runs and backup QB Kyron Drones with other packages. The message is the Bears want to be the more physical team in that spot. When Baylor has that opportunity, look for something like that again.

Keys to the Game

>A second defense – What’s been trending well over the last two weeks is how well the running game has performed. Long, sustained drives that churn out 4-6 yards per carry will be appreciated as it will keep Tech’s offense off the field. The fact that Baylor should have three rushers between Richard Reese, Qualan Jones and Sqwirl will help.

>Shape up Shapen – The turnover issue is No. 1 for both teams. The Bears and Red Raiders are each -3. That lends itself to whoever wins that battle wins this game. For Baylor, it comes down to quarterback Blake Shapen who has been brutal the last three weeks with six of Baylor’s eight (four interceptions, two fumbles). If he repeats any of this on the South Plains, the Bears won’t win.

>Striking distance – Obviously, it would be ideal to lead a game wire to wire. That’s not reality. In Baylor’s case, it has to be in a situation where it’s not chasing the game. Should the Bears fall behind, the max deficit they can endure is 14 points. A deficit of more than that is going to make a comeback a real problem…unless Tech somehow helps.

>YAC – Aranda talked about the hidden yards that come with special teams play. That’s true. But the other hidden yards are the YAC. For running backs, it’s yards after contact. For wide receivers, it’s yards after catch. Tech’s passing game makes its living this way. Baylor’s running game makes its living this way. Baylor must have the advantage in the grown man’s yards.

Prediction

This has been a season filled with high expectations that have not been met. That’s not breaking any news there. What’s frustrating about the Kansas win is that in some cases it was a win that had a bad finish. Sometimes, this team can be its own worst enemy. There isn’t a talent issue. It’s playing together for four quarters that’s the issue.

I’ve picked the Bears to win in their first seven games. Like the Bears, I’m 4-3. I can’t pick them in this one. While Baylor can stop the run, Tech doesn’t care about that. The Red Raiders are 4-to-1 pass to run. BU’s pass rush is key in this. Given its track record this season, there’s no reason for me to think any different. Baylor must create some turnovers, get short fields and protect the football.

Baylor’s players know McGuire. He knows them. I wish I felt differently about this. Maybe this prediction is just what the doctor ordered.

Texas Tech 38, Baylor 27