Stephen F. Austin (0-0) at Baylor (0-0)
Site: McLane Stadium, Waco
Time/Day: 6:00 p.m. Saturday
TV/Radio: ESPN+/ESPN Central Texas
Betting Line: Baylor -38
Series: Baylor leads, 4-0
The third year of a program rebuild is typically the one where followers and coaches will know if there is legitimacy to the rebuild or not.
By now, the majority of the roster is filled with players recruited by the current staff and are being molded into the type of players and team that fit the philosophy. It’s not perfect. But it’s getting closer.
The culture is established. Players buying in to what is stressed is generally accepted across the board. Older players are teaching and showing the younger players how things are done.
“I think that we look like a team that's not going to beat ourselves, but we have to actually go out there and do it,’’ Baylor head coach Matt Rhule said. “And I think the biggest thing is just maturity. You know, when I stand up in front of the team and talk and when guys go in their position rooms and talk, you have a bunch of veteran players that are bought into not just what we're doing but how we're doing it and that that's important to me.’’
Indeed, it is different. Two years ago in his debut, Rhule and Baylor were upset by Liberty. Last year, Baylor handily beat Abilene Christian but also saw some glaring weaknesses on defense exposed.
Regardless of the style points against an FCS opponent, Baylor may have been a little ahead of schedule last year by qualifying for and winning its bowl game. A 7-6 record for a second season represented a 6-win jump.
In 2019, there won’t be that kind of jump for Rhule’s program. But the way this team plays the game and will handle the tougher schedule challenges will serve as the benchmarks.
The Bears have a lot of ingredients to become a team that can make some noise in the Big 12 championship race. They may be another year away from actually challenging for it. But that’s why you play the games.
In its 118th season, Baylor returns 38 players (20 offense, 18 defense) who made at least one start. The general consensus is that this team is going to pretty solid offensively but a little iffy defensively, especially up front.
While the Lumberjacks, who changed coaches and are coming off a 2-win 2018 campaign, should not be a threat to make this interesting, the question is going to be whether the Bears can jump on them early and keep them down.
Here are some elements to look for
>Junior QB Charlie Brewer didn’t have a competition for the starting job. The way he runs this team in every facet should reveal how much things have changed and how much smoother the offense is going to look. Brewer’s poise is probably his greatest asset. His face is always stoic. That’s a good thing.
>In the first two seasons, Baylor’s defense has collected only 21 turnovers. It’s been one of the poorest parts of the program. It just didn’t generate anything that would change the tide of a game. Throughout fall camp, Baylor has been harping on creating turnovers and having some kind of impact. Whatever the turnover count was in fall camp really doesn’t matter, it has to start showing itself this week.
>Wide receiver Denzel Mims is a senior. He’s the only receiver in Rhule’s coaching tenure to ever enjoy a 1,000-yard season. A wide receiver corps needs its alpha. Mims is the candidate to do it. But it’s up to him to take charge. He doesn’t have to lead the team in receiving yards Saturday much less each week. What it’s going to take is how he conducts himself throughout the game.
>Defensive end James Lockhart is also a person of interest. If Baylor’s new 3-man front look is going to get off to a good start, Lockhart has to get off to a good start. There were far too many times in 2018 where he wasn’t a factor. Starting Saturday, it’s go time for him.
Notable
The Lumberjacks have never scored in any of the first four meetings.
Keys to the Game
Domination – Love is love. But business is business. The Bears have to play unmercifully and throttle this team. It’s going to have to come in all three phases. There are going to be silly mistakes. There always are in season openers. Baylor just has to create a no doubt scenario from the opening kickoff.
Rush, Rush – No, that’s not Paula Abdul’s song. However, Baylor’s pass rush has been an issue through these first two seasons. And with more questions about this unit because of so many unknowns, it’s not certain who in the cast of faces – T.J. Franklin, Gabe Hall and Chidi Ogbonnaya – can make their presence felt. It just has to start somewhere. Winning the line of scrimmage will give this unknown some validation.
Isn’t that special – Baylor’s return and coverage teams have been OK. However, they haven’t been difference makers either. The Bears do not have a true return for a TD in Rhule’s first two seasons, except the two last year that came off blocked punts. It’s not required to return a kick or punt for a score. However, a couple of big returns can change the mentality.
Block that kick – Baylor led the nation in 2018 with seven blocked kicks. That was what this team did really well with that unit. There’s nothing wrong with trying to set the tone in that department. For years, Virginia Tech under Frank Bemer had a history of doing that.
Prediction
By all accounts this shouldn’t be much of a game. The only things I want to see is if the defensive line is active and can push the pocket, if an alpha wide receiver can emerge and if a lot of younger players can get into the game and earn meaningful snaps.
This is the perfect game for the likes of backup QB Gerry Bohanon to enter in the middle of the third quarter and just become more comfortable playing in game conditions. He was hardly exposed to it last year.
SFA may break the donut and finally score. But for Baylor’s sake, the ceiling should not be any higher than 17. When you’re a team that thinks it’s pretty good, it doesn’t matter if the opponent is a pushover. It has to start playing like it from the first whistle.
Baylor 58, SFA 10
